TCEC Season 13, Division 3, Game 90 speculation simulation

For ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

RankPlayer namePointsEPointsStdDevERank123456
1Ethereal 10.8117.521.801.001.0010000000
2Arasan TCEC1312.515.701.092.61063211042
3Pedone 1.812.014.701.053.670193224158
4lc0 16.10161/16.1052012.014.440.973.930122729209
5DeusX 1.010.513.581.075.070311182629
6Hannibal 2018080610.513.451.085.25028162632
7Nemorino 5.019.512.231.086.470013920
8Bobcat 84.56.110.898.00000000

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Ethereal 10.8199.997%0.003%100.000%
2.Pedone 1.80.003%21.009%21.012%31.646%22.545%14.683%8.323% 1.791%1.791%
3.Arasan TCEC1360.383%60.383%22.272%10.388%4.997%1.827% 0.133%0.133%
4.lc0 16.105209.873% 9.873%22.736%28.198%23.008%13.369% 2.816%2.816%
5.DeusX 1.06.036% 6.036%13.794%19.833%24.567%24.535%11.235%11.235%
6.Hannibal 201808062.601% 2.601%8.531%15.858%24.922%32.985%15.103%15.103%
7.Nemorino 5.010.095% 0.095%1.021%3.178%7.823%18.961%68.922%68.921%0.001%
8.Bobcat 8100.000%0.001%99.999%

Speculate Pedone 1.8 - Nemorino 5.01 1-0

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Ethereal 10.8199.997%0.003%100.000%
2.Arasan TCEC130.002%54.752%54.754%25.515%11.884%5.719%2.073% 0.055%0.055%
3.Pedone 1.80.001%29.683%29.684%36.439%20.325%9.860%3.619% 0.073%0.073%
4.lc0 16.105208.525% 8.525%19.260%30.533%25.892%14.485% 1.305%1.305%
5.DeusX 1.04.984% 4.984%11.839%20.740%27.367%27.516% 7.554%7.554%
6.Hannibal 201808062.052% 2.052%6.905%15.816%27.572%38.127% 9.528%9.528%
7.Nemorino 5.010.001% 0.001%0.042%0.702%3.590%14.180%81.485%81.483%0.002%
8.Bobcat 8100.000%0.002%99.998%

Speculate Pedone 1.8 - Nemorino 5.01 1/2-1/2

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Ethereal 10.8199.998%0.002%100.000%
2.Arasan TCEC130.002%62.263%62.265%21.047%10.016%4.741%1.779% 0.152%0.152%
3.Pedone 1.818.786%18.786%32.374%23.909%15.758%8.268% 0.905%0.905%
4.lc0 16.1052010.282%10.282%22.910%28.046%22.714%13.299% 2.749%2.749%
5.DeusX 1.06.045% 6.045%14.331%19.527%24.228%23.785%12.084%12.084%
6.Hannibal 201808062.603% 2.603%8.842%15.830%24.698%32.010%16.017%16.017%
7.Nemorino 5.010.019% 0.019%0.496%2.672%7.861%20.859%68.093%68.093%
8.Bobcat 8100.000%100.000%

Speculate Pedone 1.8 - Nemorino 5.01 0-1

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Ethereal 10.8199.998%0.002%100.000%
2.Arasan TCEC130.002%67.888%67.890%18.096%8.131%4.005%1.606% 0.272%0.272%
3.lc0 16.1052011.607%11.607%27.190%24.963%19.464%12.067% 4.709%4.709%
4.Pedone 1.810.290%10.290%24.265%24.288%20.918%14.972% 5.267%5.267%
5.DeusX 1.06.794% 6.794%16.534%19.138%20.775%20.135%16.624%16.624%
6.Hannibal 201808063.135% 3.135%11.015%16.257%21.181%25.940%22.472%22.472%
7.Nemorino 5.010.284% 0.284%2.900%7.223%13.657%25.280%50.656%50.656%
8.Bobcat 8100.000%100.000%

Manually selected ratings: Added 170 to LCZero, 220 to Ethereal and 50 to DeusX


Rank Name Elo + - games score oppo.
52 Ethereal 10.81 3373 75 75 56 70% 3010
60 lc0 16.10520 3357 103 103 28 71% 3058
66 DeusX 1.0 3210 103 103 28 66% 3062
72 Hannibal 20180806 3168 39 39 199 44% 3202
77 Pedone 1.8 3145 96 96 28 57% 3108
92 Arasan TCEC13 3115 100 100 28 39% 3176
94 Bobcat 8 3106 44 44 171 40% 3176
104 Nemorino 5.01 3083 99 99 28 45% 3117

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Ethereal 10.81100.000%100.000%
2.lc0 16.1052048.057%48.057%27.574%15.029%7.058%2.181% 0.101%0.101%
3.Arasan TCEC1322.766%22.766%25.403%24.091%18.439%9.041% 0.260%0.260%
4.Pedone 1.817.313%17.313%23.776%25.016%20.665%12.128% 1.102%1.102%
5.DeusX 1.09.509% 9.509%16.170%21.468%26.141%22.492% 4.220%4.220%
6.Hannibal 201808062.338% 2.338%6.969%13.798%25.403%44.454% 7.038%7.038%
7.Nemorino 5.010.017% 0.017%0.108%0.598%2.294%9.704%87.279%87.270%0.009%
8.Bobcat 8100.000%0.009%99.991%

Speculate Pedone 1.8 - Nemorino 5.01 1-0

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Ethereal 10.81100.000%100.000%
2.lc0 16.1052044.536%44.536%28.359%16.337%8.192%2.537% 0.039%0.039%
3.Pedone 1.823.349%23.349%27.903%25.083%16.988%6.653% 0.024%0.024%
4.Arasan TCEC1321.547%21.547%23.388%25.086%20.089%9.816% 0.074%0.074%
5.DeusX 1.08.651% 8.651%14.636%20.599%28.109%25.450% 2.555%2.555%
6.Hannibal 201808061.917% 1.917%5.709%12.825%25.882%49.831% 3.836%3.836%
7.Nemorino 5.010.005%0.070%0.740%5.713%93.472%93.456%0.016%
8.Bobcat 8100.000%0.016%99.984%

Speculate Pedone 1.8 - Nemorino 5.01 1/2-1/2

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Ethereal 10.81100.000%100.000%
2.lc0 16.1052049.746%49.746%27.088%14.036%6.834%2.207% 0.089%0.089%
3.Arasan TCEC1323.859%23.859%25.738%23.437%17.871%8.814% 0.281%0.281%
4.Pedone 1.813.937%13.937%23.030%26.379%22.948%13.253% 0.453%0.453%
5.DeusX 1.09.987% 9.987%16.890%21.744%25.256%21.585% 4.538%4.538%
6.Hannibal 201808062.465% 2.465%7.200%14.026%24.999%43.800% 7.510%7.510%
7.Nemorino 5.010.006% 0.006%0.054%0.378%2.092%10.341%87.129%87.129%
8.Bobcat 8100.000%100.000%

Speculate Pedone 1.8 - Nemorino 5.01 0-1

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Ethereal 10.81100.000%100.000%
2.lc0 16.1052053.591%53.591%26.458%12.260%5.599%1.871% 0.221%0.221%
3.Arasan TCEC1325.469%25.469%28.314%22.518%15.571%7.490% 0.638%0.638%
4.DeusX 1.010.620%10.620%19.299%23.002%22.219%17.830% 7.030%7.030%
5.Pedone 1.87.517% 7.517%16.889%24.530%26.701%21.162% 3.201%3.201%
6.Hannibal 201808062.774% 2.774%8.711%16.200%24.764%35.139%12.412%12.412%
7.Nemorino 5.010.029% 0.029%0.329%1.490%5.146%16.508%76.498%76.498%
8.Bobcat 8100.000%100.000%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.25h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTCNoWhiteBlack
2018-08-16 09:5790Pedone 1.8Nemorino 5.01
2018-08-16 11:1291Arasan TCEC13DeusX 1.0
2018-08-16 12:2792Ethereal 10.81Hannibal 20180806
2018-08-16 13:4293lc0 16.10520Ethereal 10.81
2018-08-16 14:5894Hannibal 20180806Arasan TCEC13
2018-08-16 16:1395DeusX 1.0Pedone 1.8
2018-08-16 17:2896Nemorino 5.01Bobcat 8
2018-08-16 18:4497Nemorino 5.01lc0 16.10520
2018-08-16 19:5998Bobcat 8DeusX 1.0
2018-08-16 21:1499Pedone 1.8Hannibal 20180806
2018-08-16 22:29100Arasan TCEC13Ethereal 10.81
2018-08-16 23:45101lc0 16.10520Arasan TCEC13
2018-08-17 01:00102Ethereal 10.81Pedone 1.8
2018-08-17 02:15103Hannibal 20180806Bobcat 8
2018-08-17 03:31104DeusX 1.0Nemorino 5.01
2018-08-17 04:46105DeusX 1.0lc0 16.10520
2018-08-17 06:01106Nemorino 5.01Hannibal 20180806
2018-08-17 07:16107Bobcat 8Ethereal 10.81
2018-08-17 08:32108Pedone 1.8Arasan TCEC13
2018-08-17 09:47109lc0 16.10520Pedone 1.8
2018-08-17 11:02110Arasan TCEC13Bobcat 8
2018-08-17 12:18111Ethereal 10.81Nemorino 5.01
2018-08-17 13:33112Hannibal 20180806DeusX 1.0

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