TCEC Season 14, Division 2, Game 107 speculation simulation
For ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Output from BayesElo program
Rank | Player name | Points | EPoints | StdDev | ERank | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | LCZero v19-TP-11248/v19.1-RC2-11248 | 19.0 | 20.42 | 0.55 | 1.00 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | KomodoMCTS 2180.00/2210.00/2217.00 | 16.0 | 16.73 | 0.38 | 2.15 | 0 | 85 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3 | Xiphos 0.4.14 | 15.0 | 16.17 | 0.60 | 2.85 | 0 | 15 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4 | Booot 6.3.1 | 13.0 | 14.02 | 0.60 | 4.04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 96 | 4 | 0 |
5 | Nirvana 2.4 | 12.5 | 12.92 | 0.42 | 4.99 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 93 | 3 |
6 | ChessBrainVB 3.72 | 11.0 | 11.72 | 0.58 | 6.16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 78 |
7 | Gull 180521 | 11.0 | 11.26 | 0.38 | 6.81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 |
8 | Texel 1.08a13 | 8.5 | 8.77 | 0.38 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | LCZero v19.1-RC2-11248 | 100.000% | 100.000% | |||||||||||||
2. | KomodoMCTS 2217.00 | 64.655% | 64.655% | 35.345% | ||||||||||||
3. | Xiphos 0.4.14 | 35.345% | 35.345% | 60.580% | 4.075% | |||||||||||
4. | Booot 6.3.1 | 4.075% | 84.205% | 11.720% | ||||||||||||
5. | Nirvana 2.4 | 11.720% | 85.634% | 2.646% | ||||||||||||
6. | ChessBrainVB 3.72 | 2.646% | 56.115% | 41.239% | 41.239% | |||||||||||
7. | Gull 180521 | 41.239% | 58.761% | 58.761% | ||||||||||||
8. | Texel 1.08a13 | 100.000% | 100.000% |
Speculate ChessBrainVB 3.72 - LCZero v19.1-RC2-11248 1-0
Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | LCZero v19.1-RC2-11248 | 100.000% | 100.000% | |||||||||||||
2. | KomodoMCTS 2217.00 | 64.728% | 64.728% | 35.272% | ||||||||||||
3. | Xiphos 0.4.14 | 35.272% | 35.272% | 60.790% | 3.938% | |||||||||||
4. | Booot 6.3.1 | 3.938% | 83.853% | 12.209% | ||||||||||||
5. | Nirvana 2.4 | 12.209% | 75.100% | 12.691% | ||||||||||||
6. | ChessBrainVB 3.72 | 12.691% | 79.716% | 7.593% | 7.593% | |||||||||||
7. | Gull 180521 | 7.593% | 92.407% | 92.407% | ||||||||||||
8. | Texel 1.08a13 | 100.000% | 100.000% |
Speculate ChessBrainVB 3.72 - LCZero v19.1-RC2-11248 1/2-1/2
Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | LCZero v19.1-RC2-11248 | 100.000% | 100.000% | |||||||||||||
2. | KomodoMCTS 2217.00 | 64.572% | 64.572% | 35.428% | ||||||||||||
3. | Xiphos 0.4.14 | 35.428% | 35.428% | 60.529% | 4.043% | |||||||||||
4. | Booot 6.3.1 | 4.043% | 84.042% | 11.915% | ||||||||||||
5. | Nirvana 2.4 | 11.915% | 88.085% | |||||||||||||
6. | ChessBrainVB 3.72 | 78.577% | 21.423% | 21.423% | ||||||||||||
7. | Gull 180521 | 21.423% | 78.577% | 78.577% | ||||||||||||
8. | Texel 1.08a13 | 100.000% | 100.000% |
Speculate ChessBrainVB 3.72 - LCZero v19.1-RC2-11248 0-1
Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | LCZero v19.1-RC2-11248 | 100.000% | 100.000% | |||||||||||||
2. | KomodoMCTS 2217.00 | 64.708% | 64.708% | 35.292% | ||||||||||||
3. | Xiphos 0.4.14 | 35.292% | 35.292% | 60.616% | 4.092% | |||||||||||
4. | Booot 6.3.1 | 4.092% | 84.376% | 11.532% | ||||||||||||
5. | Nirvana 2.4 | 11.532% | 88.468% | |||||||||||||
6. | Gull 180521 | 61.455% | 38.545% | 38.545% | ||||||||||||
7. | ChessBrainVB 3.72 | 38.545% | 61.455% | 61.455% | ||||||||||||
8. | Texel 1.08a13 | 100.000% | 100.000% |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.28h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.UTC | No | White | Black |
---|---|---|---|
2018-12-14 09:14 | 108 | Xiphos 0.4.14 | Booot 6.3.1 |
2018-12-14 10:31 | 109 | Nirvana 2.4 | Xiphos 0.4.14 |
2018-12-14 11:47 | 110 | Booot 6.3.1 | ChessBrainVB 3.72 |
2018-12-14 13:04 | 111 | LCZero v19.1-RC2-11248 | Gull 180521 |
2018-12-14 14:20 | 112 | KomodoMCTS 2217.00 | Texel 1.08a13 |
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