TCEC Season 12, Division P, Game 19 speculation simulation

Output from BayesElo program

RankPlayer namePointsEPointsStdDevERank1234567
1Komodo 124.038.546.601.975520117421
2Houdini 6.032.532.193.783.1962432241130
3Stockfish 1605182.531.867.223.46172116151395
4Andscacs 0.930702.529.906.683.951016171816127
5Fire 72.528.507.214.32913141618149
6Ginkgo 2.012/2.0142.023.214.385.8401310223224
7Chiron 0403181.522.067.575.962569131719
8Jonny 8.10.517.743.517.30000131234

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
PosName1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.
1.Komodo 1254.665%19.901%10.723%6.937%4.330%2.165%0.966%0.313%
2.Stockfish 16051817.415%21.221%16.200%15.152%12.896%8.791%5.340%2.985%
3.Andscacs 0.930709.809%16.326%17.173%18.043%16.244%11.464%7.007%3.934%
4.Fire 78.829%13.649%14.358%16.025%17.459%13.803%9.610%6.267%
5.Houdini 6.036.612%23.229%31.630%24.335%10.993%2.799%0.390%0.012%
6.Chiron 0403182.537%4.680%6.370%8.961%12.664%16.339%18.789%29.660%
7.Ginkgo 2.0140.133%0.990%3.463%9.945%22.036%31.800%23.050%8.583%
8.Jonny 8.10.004%0.083%0.602%3.378%12.839%34.848%48.246%

Speculate Chiron 040318 - Stockfish 160518 1-0

PosName1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.
1.Komodo 1252.104%18.642%10.895%7.788%5.250%3.141%1.594%0.586%
2.Fire 714.055%16.488%14.740%14.950%14.128%11.526%8.437%5.676%
3.Andscacs 0.930709.860%14.695%15.257%16.504%15.686%12.757%9.385%5.856%
4.Houdini 6.039.214%26.693%29.914%20.924%9.817%2.995%0.427%0.016%
5.Stockfish 1605187.340%11.855%13.366%15.557%16.758%15.157%11.742%8.225%
6.Chiron 0403187.219%10.453%11.880%13.776%15.730%15.501%13.615%11.826%
7.Ginkgo 2.0140.207%1.169%3.868%9.900%19.703%28.539%26.569%10.045%
8.Jonny 8.10.001%0.005%0.080%0.601%2.928%10.384%28.231%57.770%

Speculate Chiron 040318 - Stockfish 160518 1/2-1/2

PosName1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.
1.Komodo 1255.232%18.284%10.442%7.148%4.626%2.589%1.245%0.434%
2.Stockfish 16051812.337%18.465%17.078%16.896%15.092%10.482%6.389%3.261%
3.Fire 711.075%15.037%14.262%15.614%15.738%12.717%9.213%6.344%
4.Andscacs 0.9307010.398%16.182%16.140%16.714%15.730%12.055%8.114%4.667%
5.Houdini 6.038.049%25.501%30.770%22.288%10.211%2.758%0.410%0.013%
6.Chiron 0403182.725%5.416%7.555%10.917%15.055%18.245%19.015%21.072%
7.Ginkgo 2.0140.184%1.109%3.671%9.880%20.539%29.968%24.940%9.709%
8.Jonny 8.10.006%0.082%0.543%3.009%11.186%30.674%54.500%

Speculate Chiron 040318 - Stockfish 160518 0-1

PosName1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.
1.Komodo 1254.686%20.487%10.741%7.028%4.101%1.938%0.762%0.257%
2.Stockfish 16051821.582%25.869%17.936%14.672%10.536%5.742%2.659%1.004%
3.Andscacs 0.930709.728%16.840%17.882%18.832%16.569%10.826%6.203%3.120%
4.Fire 77.590%12.404%13.896%16.332%19.142%14.729%9.570%6.337%
5.Houdini 6.035.405%21.431%32.356%26.276%11.719%2.497%0.309%0.007%
6.Chiron 0403180.892%2.159%3.844%6.438%10.993%16.328%21.553%37.793%
7.Ginkgo 2.0140.117%0.807%3.292%9.850%23.474%34.074%20.960%7.426%
8.Jonny 8.10.003%0.053%0.572%3.466%13.866%37.984%44.056%

Expected start time based on estimate of 2.99h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTCNoWhiteBlack
2018-05-25 21:5220Fire 7Houdini 6.03
2018-05-26 00:5221Jonny 8.1Houdini 6.03
2018-05-26 03:5122Stockfish 160518Fire 7
2018-05-26 06:5123Komodo 12Chiron 040318
2018-05-26 09:5124Andscacs 0.93070Ginkgo 2.014
2018-05-26 12:5025Ginkgo 2.014Jonny 8.1
2018-05-26 15:5026Chiron 040318Andscacs 0.93070
2018-05-26 18:4927Fire 7Komodo 12
2018-05-26 21:4928Houdini 6.03Stockfish 160518
2018-05-27 00:4929Jonny 8.1Stockfish 160518
2018-05-27 03:4830Houdini 6.03Komodo 12
2018-05-27 06:4831Fire 7Andscacs 0.93070
2018-05-27 09:4832Chiron 040318Ginkgo 2.014
2018-05-27 12:4733Chiron 040318Jonny 8.1
2018-05-27 15:4734Ginkgo 2.014Fire 7
2018-05-27 18:4735Andscacs 0.93070Houdini 6.03
2018-05-27 21:4636Komodo 12Stockfish 160518
2018-05-28 00:4637Jonny 8.1Komodo 12
2018-05-28 03:4538Stockfish 160518Andscacs 0.93070
2018-05-28 06:4539Houdini 6.03Ginkgo 2.014
2018-05-28 09:4540Fire 7Chiron 040318
2018-05-28 12:4441Fire 7Jonny 8.1
2018-05-28 15:4442Chiron 040318Houdini 6.03
2018-05-28 18:4443Ginkgo 2.014Stockfish 160518
2018-05-28 21:4344Andscacs 0.93070Komodo 12
2018-05-29 00:4345Jonny 8.1Andscacs 0.93070
2018-05-29 03:4346Komodo 12Ginkgo 2.014
2018-05-29 06:4247Stockfish 160518Chiron 040318
2018-05-29 09:4248Houdini 6.03Fire 7
2018-05-29 12:4149Houdini 6.03Jonny 8.1
2018-05-29 15:4150Fire 7Stockfish 160518
2018-05-29 18:4151Chiron 040318Komodo 12
2018-05-29 21:4052Ginkgo 2.014Andscacs 0.93070
2018-05-30 00:4053Jonny 8.1Ginkgo 2.014
2018-05-30 03:4054Andscacs 0.93070Chiron 040318
2018-05-30 06:3955Komodo 12Fire 7
2018-05-30 09:3956Stockfish 160518Houdini 6.03
2018-05-30 12:3957Stockfish 160518Jonny 8.1
2018-05-30 15:3858Komodo 12Houdini 6.03
2018-05-30 18:3859Andscacs 0.93070Fire 7
2018-05-30 21:3860Ginkgo 2.014Chiron 040318
2018-05-31 00:3761Jonny 8.1Chiron 040318
2018-05-31 03:3762Fire 7Ginkgo 2.014
2018-05-31 06:3663Houdini 6.03Andscacs 0.93070
2018-05-31 09:3664Stockfish 160518Komodo 12
2018-05-31 12:3665Komodo 12Jonny 8.1
2018-05-31 15:3566Andscacs 0.93070Stockfish 160518
2018-05-31 18:3567Ginkgo 2.014Houdini 6.03
2018-05-31 21:3568Chiron 040318Fire 7
2018-06-01 00:3469Jonny 8.1Fire 7
2018-06-01 03:3470Houdini 6.03Chiron 040318
2018-06-01 06:3471Stockfish 160518Ginkgo 2.014
2018-06-01 09:3372Komodo 12Andscacs 0.93070
2018-06-01 12:3373Andscacs 0.93070Jonny 8.1
2018-06-01 15:3274Ginkgo 2.014Komodo 12
2018-06-01 18:3275Chiron 040318Stockfish 160518
2018-06-01 21:3276Fire 7Houdini 6.03
2018-06-02 00:3177Jonny 8.1Houdini 6.03
2018-06-02 03:3178Stockfish 160518Fire 7
2018-06-02 06:3179Komodo 12Chiron 040318
2018-06-02 09:3080Andscacs 0.93070Ginkgo 2.014
2018-06-02 12:3081Ginkgo 2.014Jonny 8.1
2018-06-02 15:3082Chiron 040318Andscacs 0.93070
2018-06-02 18:2983Fire 7Komodo 12
2018-06-02 21:2984Houdini 6.03Stockfish 160518
2018-06-03 00:2985Jonny 8.1Stockfish 160518
2018-06-03 03:2886Houdini 6.03Komodo 12
2018-06-03 06:2887Fire 7Andscacs 0.93070
2018-06-03 09:2788Chiron 040318Ginkgo 2.014
2018-06-03 12:2789Chiron 040318Jonny 8.1
2018-06-03 15:2790Ginkgo 2.014Fire 7
2018-06-03 18:2691Andscacs 0.93070Houdini 6.03
2018-06-03 21:2692Komodo 12Stockfish 160518
2018-06-04 00:2693Jonny 8.1Komodo 12
2018-06-04 03:2594Stockfish 160518Andscacs 0.93070
2018-06-04 06:2595Houdini 6.03Ginkgo 2.014
2018-06-04 09:2596Fire 7Chiron 040318
2018-06-04 12:2497Fire 7Jonny 8.1
2018-06-04 15:2498Chiron 040318Houdini 6.03
2018-06-04 18:2399Ginkgo 2.014Stockfish 160518
2018-06-04 21:23100Andscacs 0.93070Komodo 12
2018-06-05 00:23101Jonny 8.1Andscacs 0.93070
2018-06-05 03:22102Komodo 12Ginkgo 2.014
2018-06-05 06:22103Stockfish 160518Chiron 040318
2018-06-05 09:22104Houdini 6.03Fire 7
2018-06-05 12:21105Houdini 6.03Jonny 8.1
2018-06-05 15:21106Fire 7Stockfish 160518
2018-06-05 18:21107Chiron 040318Komodo 12
2018-06-05 21:20108Ginkgo 2.014Andscacs 0.93070
2018-06-06 00:20109Jonny 8.1Ginkgo 2.014
2018-06-06 03:20110Andscacs 0.93070Chiron 040318
2018-06-06 06:19111Komodo 12Fire 7
2018-06-06 09:19112Stockfish 160518Houdini 6.03
2018-06-06 12:18113Stockfish 160518Jonny 8.1
2018-06-06 15:18114Komodo 12Houdini 6.03
2018-06-06 18:18115Andscacs 0.93070Fire 7
2018-06-06 21:17116Ginkgo 2.014Chiron 040318
2018-06-07 00:17117Jonny 8.1Chiron 040318
2018-06-07 03:17118Fire 7Ginkgo 2.014
2018-06-07 06:16119Houdini 6.03Andscacs 0.93070
2018-06-07 09:16120Stockfish 160518Komodo 12
2018-06-07 12:16121Komodo 12Jonny 8.1
2018-06-07 15:15122Andscacs 0.93070Stockfish 160518
2018-06-07 18:15123Ginkgo 2.014Houdini 6.03
2018-06-07 21:14124Chiron 040318Fire 7
2018-06-08 00:14125Jonny 8.1Fire 7
2018-06-08 03:14126Houdini 6.03Chiron 040318
2018-06-08 06:13127Stockfish 160518Ginkgo 2.014
2018-06-08 09:13128Komodo 12Andscacs 0.93070
2018-06-08 12:13129Andscacs 0.93070Jonny 8.1
2018-06-08 15:12130Ginkgo 2.014Komodo 12
2018-06-08 18:12131Chiron 040318Stockfish 160518
2018-06-08 21:12132Fire 7Houdini 6.03
2018-06-09 00:11133Jonny 8.1Houdini 6.03
2018-06-09 03:11134Stockfish 160518Fire 7
2018-06-09 06:11135Komodo 12Chiron 040318
2018-06-09 09:10136Andscacs 0.93070Ginkgo 2.014
2018-06-09 12:10137Ginkgo 2.014Jonny 8.1
2018-06-09 15:09138Chiron 040318Andscacs 0.93070
2018-06-09 18:09139Fire 7Komodo 12
2018-06-09 21:09140Houdini 6.03Stockfish 160518
2018-06-10 00:08141Jonny 8.1Stockfish 160518
2018-06-10 03:08142Houdini 6.03Komodo 12
2018-06-10 06:08143Fire 7Andscacs 0.93070
2018-06-10 09:07144Chiron 040318Ginkgo 2.014
2018-06-10 12:07145Chiron 040318Jonny 8.1
2018-06-10 15:07146Ginkgo 2.014Fire 7
2018-06-10 18:06147Andscacs 0.93070Houdini 6.03
2018-06-10 21:06148Komodo 12Stockfish 160518
2018-06-11 00:05149Jonny 8.1Komodo 12
2018-06-11 03:05150Stockfish 160518Andscacs 0.93070
2018-06-11 06:05151Houdini 6.03Ginkgo 2.014
2018-06-11 09:04152Fire 7Chiron 040318
2018-06-11 12:04153Fire 7Jonny 8.1
2018-06-11 15:04154Chiron 040318Houdini 6.03
2018-06-11 18:03155Ginkgo 2.014Stockfish 160518
2018-06-11 21:03156Andscacs 0.93070Komodo 12
2018-06-12 00:03157Jonny 8.1Andscacs 0.93070
2018-06-12 03:02158Komodo 12Ginkgo 2.014
2018-06-12 06:02159Stockfish 160518Chiron 040318
2018-06-12 09:01160Houdini 6.03Fire 7
2018-06-12 12:01161Houdini 6.03Jonny 8.1
2018-06-12 15:01162Fire 7Stockfish 160518
2018-06-12 18:00163Chiron 040318Komodo 12
2018-06-12 21:00164Ginkgo 2.014Andscacs 0.93070
2018-06-13 00:00165Jonny 8.1Ginkgo 2.014
2018-06-13 02:59166Andscacs 0.93070Chiron 040318
2018-06-13 05:59167Komodo 12Fire 7
2018-06-13 08:59168Stockfish 160518Houdini 6.03
2018-06-13 11:58169Stockfish 160518Jonny 8.1
2018-06-13 14:58170Komodo 12Houdini 6.03
2018-06-13 17:58171Andscacs 0.93070Fire 7
2018-06-13 20:57172Ginkgo 2.014Chiron 040318
2018-06-13 23:57173Jonny 8.1Chiron 040318
2018-06-14 02:56174Fire 7Ginkgo 2.014
2018-06-14 05:56175Houdini 6.03Andscacs 0.93070
2018-06-14 08:56176Stockfish 160518Komodo 12
2018-06-14 11:55177Komodo 12Jonny 8.1
2018-06-14 14:55178Andscacs 0.93070Stockfish 160518
2018-06-14 17:55179Ginkgo 2.014Houdini 6.03
2018-06-14 20:54180Chiron 040318Fire 7
2018-06-14 23:54181Jonny 8.1Fire 7
2018-06-15 02:54182Houdini 6.03Chiron 040318
2018-06-15 05:53183Stockfish 160518Ginkgo 2.014
2018-06-15 08:53184Komodo 12Andscacs 0.93070
2018-06-15 11:52185Andscacs 0.93070Jonny 8.1
2018-06-15 14:52186Ginkgo 2.014Komodo 12
2018-06-15 17:52187Chiron 040318Stockfish 160518
2018-06-15 20:51188Fire 7Houdini 6.03
2018-06-15 23:51189Jonny 8.1Houdini 6.03
2018-06-16 02:51190Stockfish 160518Fire 7
2018-06-16 05:50191Komodo 12Chiron 040318
2018-06-16 08:50192Andscacs 0.93070Ginkgo 2.014
2018-06-16 11:50193Ginkgo 2.014Jonny 8.1
2018-06-16 14:49194Chiron 040318Andscacs 0.93070
2018-06-16 17:49195Fire 7Komodo 12
2018-06-16 20:49196Houdini 6.03Stockfish 160518
2018-06-16 23:48197Jonny 8.1Stockfish 160518
2018-06-17 02:48198Houdini 6.03Komodo 12
2018-06-17 05:47199Fire 7Andscacs 0.93070
2018-06-17 08:47200Chiron 040318Ginkgo 2.014
2018-06-17 11:47201Chiron 040318Jonny 8.1
2018-06-17 14:46202Ginkgo 2.014Fire 7
2018-06-17 17:46203Andscacs 0.93070Houdini 6.03
2018-06-17 20:46204Komodo 12Stockfish 160518
2018-06-17 23:45205Jonny 8.1Komodo 12
2018-06-18 02:45206Stockfish 160518Andscacs 0.93070
2018-06-18 05:45207Houdini 6.03Ginkgo 2.014
2018-06-18 08:44208Fire 7Chiron 040318
2018-06-18 11:44209Fire 7Jonny 8.1
2018-06-18 14:43210Chiron 040318Houdini 6.03
2018-06-18 17:43211Ginkgo 2.014Stockfish 160518
2018-06-18 20:43212Andscacs 0.93070Komodo 12
2018-06-18 23:42213Jonny 8.1Andscacs 0.93070
2018-06-19 02:42214Komodo 12Ginkgo 2.014
2018-06-19 05:42215Stockfish 160518Chiron 040318
2018-06-19 08:41216Houdini 6.03Fire 7
2018-06-19 11:41217Houdini 6.03Jonny 8.1
2018-06-19 14:41218Fire 7Stockfish 160518
2018-06-19 17:40219Chiron 040318Komodo 12
2018-06-19 20:40220Ginkgo 2.014Andscacs 0.93070
2018-06-19 23:40221Jonny 8.1Ginkgo 2.014
2018-06-20 02:39222Andscacs 0.93070Chiron 040318
2018-06-20 05:39223Komodo 12Fire 7
2018-06-20 08:38224Stockfish 160518Houdini 6.03

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