TCEC Season 13, Division 1, Game 87 speculation simulation

For ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

RankPlayer namePointsEPointsStdDevERank1234567
1Ethereal 10.81/10.8515.519.161.031.0991900000
2Chiron S1313.017.001.222.03981101000
3Fizbo 212.014.961.053.080107511310
4Fritz 16.109.512.781.145.2000731241813
5Jonny 8.19.512.421.045.6500321242218
6Laser 1808189.012.201.205.9400317202121
7ChessBrainVB 3.709.011.931.076.2900111182225
8Booot 6.3.18.511.541.206.730018121623

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Ethereal 10.8586.517%13.293%99.810%0.190%
2.Chiron S1313.328%72.813%86.141%12.542%1.148%0.143%0.025% 0.001%0.001%
3.Fizbo 20.155%12.929%13.084%67.134%14.306%4.066%1.160% 0.250%0.227%0.023%
4.Fritz 16.100.563% 0.563%8.786%29.089%21.968%18.095%21.499%13.711%7.788%
5.Laser 1808180.278% 0.278%4.435%15.122%18.784%20.802%40.579%22.175%18.404%
6.Jonny 8.10.090% 0.090%4.957%20.779%25.650%22.208%26.316%16.663%9.653%
7.Booot 6.3.10.020% 0.020%0.975%6.246%10.621%15.415%66.723%22.855%43.868%
8.ChessBrainVB 3.700.014% 0.014%0.981%13.310%18.768%22.295%44.632%24.368%20.264%

Speculate Fritz 16.10 - Chiron S13 1-0

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Ethereal 10.8594.343%5.513%99.856%0.144%
2.Chiron S135.466%70.536%76.002%20.187%3.249%0.487%0.070% 0.005%0.005%
3.Fizbo 20.190%21.192%21.382%55.079%16.666%5.124%1.440% 0.309%0.284%0.025%
4.Fritz 16.100.001%1.919% 1.920%14.757%37.187%22.024%13.696%10.416%7.577%2.839%
5.Laser 1808180.562% 0.562%3.938%12.203%18.119%21.800%43.378%23.782%19.596%
6.Jonny 8.10.216% 0.216%4.123%15.633%27.764%24.374%27.890%18.018%9.872%
7.Booot 6.3.10.041% 0.041%0.794%4.495%9.735%15.412%69.523%23.739%45.784%
8.ChessBrainVB 3.700.021% 0.021%0.978%10.567%16.747%23.208%48.479%26.595%21.884%

Speculate Fritz 16.10 - Chiron S13 1/2-1/2

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Ethereal 10.8588.640%11.152%99.792%0.208%
2.Chiron S1311.176%75.182%86.358%12.944%0.641%0.055%0.002%
3.Fizbo 20.184%13.166%13.350%66.946%13.989%4.270%1.179% 0.266%0.250%0.016%
4.Laser 1808180.284% 0.284%4.340%14.961%18.684%20.716%41.015%22.177%18.838%
5.Fritz 16.100.120% 0.120%8.802%30.441%23.411%18.022%19.204%12.964%6.240%
6.Jonny 8.10.072% 0.072%4.890%20.347%25.388%22.656%26.647%17.072%9.575%
7.Booot 6.3.10.015% 0.015%0.978%6.291%10.275%15.206%67.235%22.861%44.374%
8.ChessBrainVB 3.700.009% 0.009%0.892%13.330%17.917%22.219%45.633%24.676%20.957%

Speculate Fritz 16.10 - Chiron S13 0-1

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Ethereal 10.8580.145%19.634%99.779%0.221%
2.Chiron S1319.706%72.879%92.585%7.273%0.140%0.002%
3.Fizbo 20.149%7.350% 7.499%75.663%12.296%3.393%0.951% 0.198%0.189%0.009%
4.Laser 1808180.103% 0.103%4.855%17.618%19.508%20.214%37.702%20.219%17.483%
5.Jonny 8.10.030% 0.030%5.420%24.258%24.104%20.778%25.410%16.192%9.218%
6.Fritz 16.100.002% 0.002%4.574%22.251%21.813%20.784%30.576%18.490%12.086%
7.Booot 6.3.10.002% 0.002%1.036%7.571%11.489%15.426%64.476%22.272%42.204%
8.ChessBrainVB 3.700.958%15.866%19.691%21.847%41.638%22.638%19.000%

Expected start time based on estimate of 2.08h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTCNoWhiteBlack
2018-09-01 08:4988Laser 180818Booot 6.3.1
2018-09-01 10:5489Laser 180818Fizbo 2
2018-09-01 12:5990Booot 6.3.1Fritz 16.10
2018-09-01 15:0491Chiron S13Jonny 8.1
2018-09-01 17:0892Ethereal 10.85ChessBrainVB 3.70
2018-09-01 19:1393Fizbo 2Ethereal 10.85
2018-09-01 21:1894ChessBrainVB 3.70Chiron S13
2018-09-01 23:2295Jonny 8.1Booot 6.3.1
2018-09-02 01:2796Fritz 16.10Laser 180818
2018-09-02 03:3297Fritz 16.10Fizbo 2
2018-09-02 05:3698Laser 180818Jonny 8.1
2018-09-02 07:4199Booot 6.3.1ChessBrainVB 3.70
2018-09-02 09:46100Chiron S13Ethereal 10.85
2018-09-02 11:51101Fizbo 2Chiron S13
2018-09-02 13:55102Ethereal 10.85Booot 6.3.1
2018-09-02 16:00103ChessBrainVB 3.70Laser 180818
2018-09-02 18:05104Jonny 8.1Fritz 16.10
2018-09-02 20:09105Jonny 8.1Fizbo 2
2018-09-02 22:14106Fritz 16.10ChessBrainVB 3.70
2018-09-03 00:19107Laser 180818Ethereal 10.85
2018-09-03 02:23108Booot 6.3.1Chiron S13
2018-09-03 04:28109Fizbo 2Booot 6.3.1
2018-09-03 06:33110Chiron S13Laser 180818
2018-09-03 08:38111Ethereal 10.85Fritz 16.10
2018-09-03 10:42112ChessBrainVB 3.70Jonny 8.1

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