TCEC Season 13, Division P, Game 210 speculation simulation

For ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

Rank	Player name	Points	EPoints	StdDev	ERank	1 2 3 4	5	6	7
1	Stockfish 010918	36.5	39.28	0.80	1.00	100 0 0 0	0	0	0
2	Komodo 2121.01	33.5	36.07	0.83	2.00	0100 0 0	0	0	0
3	Houdini 6.03	31.0	32.71	0.73	3.00	0 0100 0	0	0	0
4	Fire 7.1	25.0	26.96	0.85	4.00	0 0 0100	0	0	0
5	Ethereal 10.81/10.85/10.97	22.5	24.11	0.83	5.14	0 0 0 0	85	14	0
6	Andscacs 094030	21.5	23.01	0.83	5.90	0 0 0 0	14	82	4
7	Ginkgo S13	20.0	21.26	0.73	7.25	0 0 0 0	0	3	68
8	Chiron S13	19.0	20.61	0.83	7.70	0 0 0 0	0	1	27

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos	Name		1.	2.		1-2.		3.	4.	5.	6.		7-8.		7.	8.
1.	Stockfish 010918		99.907%	0.093%		100.000%
2.	Komodo 2121.01		0.093%	99.729%		99.822%		0.178%
3.	Houdini 6.03			0.178%		0.178%		99.822%
4.	Fire 7.1								98.508%	1.458%	0.034%
5.	Ethereal 10.97								1.367%	85.601%	12.474%		0.558%		0.556%	0.002%
6.	Andscacs 094030								0.125%	12.413%	79.107%		8.355%		8.187%	0.168%
7.	Ginkgo S13									0.340%	7.204%		92.456%		54.477%	37.979%
8.	Chiron S13									0.188%	1.181%		98.631%		36.780%	61.851%

Speculate Komodo 2121.01 - Fire 7.1 1-0

Pos	Name		1.	2.		1-2.		3.	4.	5.	6.		7-8.		7.	8.
1.	Stockfish 010918		99.841%	0.159%		100.000%
2.	Komodo 2121.01		0.159%	99.841%		100.000%
3.	Houdini 6.03							100.000%
4.	Fire 7.1								97.457%	2.489%	0.054%
5.	Ethereal 10.97								2.325%	84.413%	12.742%		0.520%		0.519%	0.001%
6.	Andscacs 094030								0.218%	12.573%	78.914%		8.295%		8.141%	0.154%
7.	Ginkgo S13									0.353%	7.159%		92.488%		54.524%	37.964%
8.	Chiron S13									0.172%	1.131%		98.697%		36.816%	61.881%

Speculate Komodo 2121.01 - Fire 7.1 1/2-1/2

Pos	Name		1.	2.		1-2.		3.	4.	5.	6.		7-8.		7.	8.
1.	Stockfish 010918		99.985%	0.015%		100.000%
2.	Komodo 2121.01		0.015%	99.860%		99.875%		0.125%
3.	Houdini 6.03			0.125%		0.125%		99.875%
4.	Fire 7.1								99.328%	0.669%	0.003%
5.	Ethereal 10.97								0.642%	86.258%	12.570%		0.530%		0.524%	0.006%
6.	Andscacs 094030								0.030%	12.580%	79.178%		8.212%		8.061%	0.151%
7.	Ginkgo S13									0.321%	7.129%		92.550%		54.664%	37.886%
8.	Chiron S13									0.172%	1.120%		98.708%		36.751%	61.957%

Speculate Komodo 2121.01 - Fire 7.1 0-1

Pos	Name		1.	2.		1-2.		3.	4.	5.	6.		7-8.		7.	8.
1.	Stockfish 010918		100.000%			100.000%
2.	Komodo 2121.01			99.298%		99.298%		0.702%
3.	Houdini 6.03			0.702%		0.702%		99.298%
4.	Fire 7.1								99.851%	0.149%
5.	Ethereal 10.97								0.149%	86.793%	12.532%		0.526%		0.521%	0.005%
6.	Andscacs 094030									12.519%	79.089%		8.392%		8.256%	0.136%
7.	Ginkgo S13									0.367%	7.241%		92.392%		54.265%	38.127%
8.	Chiron S13									0.172%	1.138%		98.690%		36.958%	61.732%

Expected start time based on estimate of 2.93h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC	No	White	Black
2018-10-01 08:28	211	Stockfish 010918	Andscacs 094030
2018-10-01 11:24	212	Chiron S13	Ethereal 10.97
2018-10-01 14:20	213	Ginkgo S13	Chiron S13
2018-10-01 17:16	214	Ethereal 10.97	Stockfish 010918
2018-10-01 20:12	215	Andscacs 094030	Komodo 2121.01
2018-10-01 23:08	216	Fire 7.1	Houdini 6.03
2018-10-02 02:03	217	Fire 7.1	Ginkgo S13
2018-10-02 04:59	218	Houdini 6.03	Andscacs 094030
2018-10-02 07:55	219	Komodo 2121.01	Ethereal 10.97
2018-10-02 10:51	220	Stockfish 010918	Chiron S13
2018-10-02 13:47	221	Ginkgo S13	Stockfish 010918
2018-10-02 16:43	222	Chiron S13	Komodo 2121.01
2018-10-02 19:38	223	Ethereal 10.97	Houdini 6.03
2018-10-02 22:34	224	Andscacs 094030	Fire 7.1