TCEC Season 14, Division 1, Game 13 speculation simulation
For ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Output from BayesElo program
| Rank | Player name | Points | EPoints | StdDev | ERank | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Laser 181205 | 2.0 | 16.62 | 4.03 | 3.03 | 33 | 21 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| 2 | Ginkgo 2.18b | 2.0 | 16.06 | 4.06 | 3.31 | 28 | 21 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| 3 | LCZero v19-TP-11248/v19.1-RC2-11248/v19.1-11248 | 1.5 | 15.28 | 2.55 | 3.41 | 12 | 22 | 24 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 4 |
| 4 | Chiron S14 | 2.0 | 14.93 | 4.23 | 3.92 | 21 | 17 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9 |
| 5 | KomodoMCTS 2180.00/2210.00/2217.00/2221.00 | 1.5 | 13.36 | 2.43 | 4.78 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 19 | 19 | 16 | 13 |
| 6 | Fizbo 2 | 1.5 | 12.95 | 2.33 | 5.10 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 17 | 20 | 19 | 15 |
| 7 | Jonny 8.1 | 1.0 | 11.97 | 2.28 | 5.83 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
| 8 | Fritz 16.10 | 0.5 | 10.81 | 2.33 | 6.61 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 25 |
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Laser 181205 | 33.175% | 20.682% | 53.857% | 12.631% | 8.570% | 6.940% | 5.923% | 12.079% | 5.681% | 6.398% | |||||
| 2. | Ginkgo 2.18b | 28.032% | 20.410% | 48.442% | 13.133% | 9.217% | 7.601% | 6.882% | 14.725% | 6.676% | 8.049% | |||||
| 3. | Chiron S14 | 20.854% | 17.109% | 37.963% | 13.143% | 9.990% | 8.670% | 8.289% | 21.945% | 9.007% | 12.938% | |||||
| 4. | LCZero v19.1-11248 | 12.026% | 21.804% | 33.830% | 23.004% | 17.615% | 11.598% | 7.422% | 6.531% | 4.432% | 2.099% | |||||
| 5. | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | 2.987% | 8.964% | 11.951% | 14.735% | 18.527% | 18.321% | 15.966% | 20.500% | 12.704% | 7.796% | |||||
| 6. | Fizbo 2 | 1.875% | 6.514% | 8.389% | 12.358% | 16.881% | 18.963% | 18.352% | 25.057% | 15.112% | 9.945% | |||||
| 7. | Jonny 8.1 | 0.761% | 3.099% | 3.860% | 7.329% | 12.228% | 16.670% | 20.605% | 39.308% | 21.741% | 17.567% | |||||
| 8. | Fritz 16.10 | 0.290% | 1.418% | 1.708% | 3.667% | 6.972% | 11.237% | 16.561% | 59.855% | 24.647% | 35.208% |
Speculate Fizbo 2 - Fritz 16.10 1-0
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Laser 181205 | 33.255% | 20.491% | 53.746% | 12.794% | 8.657% | 6.915% | 6.167% | 11.721% | 5.889% | 5.832% | |||||
| 2. | Ginkgo 2.18b | 27.525% | 20.018% | 47.543% | 13.198% | 9.596% | 7.886% | 7.107% | 14.670% | 6.994% | 7.676% | |||||
| 3. | Chiron S14 | 20.879% | 16.648% | 37.527% | 13.086% | 9.964% | 9.002% | 8.604% | 21.817% | 9.269% | 12.548% | |||||
| 4. | LCZero v19.1-11248 | 11.964% | 21.926% | 33.890% | 22.555% | 17.366% | 11.957% | 7.727% | 6.505% | 4.531% | 1.974% | |||||
| 5. | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | 2.997% | 8.837% | 11.834% | 14.347% | 18.375% | 18.515% | 16.681% | 20.248% | 12.883% | 7.365% | |||||
| 6. | Fizbo 2 | 2.494% | 8.181% | 10.675% | 14.572% | 19.150% | 19.986% | 17.351% | 18.266% | 12.404% | 5.862% | |||||
| 7. | Jonny 8.1 | 0.761% | 3.113% | 3.874% | 7.153% | 12.072% | 16.797% | 21.140% | 38.964% | 22.496% | 16.468% | |||||
| 8. | Fritz 16.10 | 0.125% | 0.786% | 0.911% | 2.295% | 4.820% | 8.942% | 15.223% | 67.809% | 25.534% | 42.275% |
Speculate Fizbo 2 - Fritz 16.10 1/2-1/2
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Laser 181205 | 33.485% | 20.818% | 54.303% | 12.612% | 8.605% | 6.650% | 5.793% | 12.037% | 5.555% | 6.482% | |||||
| 2. | Ginkgo 2.18b | 28.021% | 20.400% | 48.421% | 13.370% | 9.460% | 7.420% | 6.646% | 14.683% | 6.452% | 8.231% | |||||
| 3. | Chiron S14 | 20.745% | 17.353% | 38.098% | 13.285% | 10.056% | 8.497% | 8.119% | 21.945% | 8.733% | 13.212% | |||||
| 4. | LCZero v19.1-11248 | 12.104% | 22.234% | 34.338% | 22.904% | 17.263% | 11.337% | 7.339% | 6.819% | 4.563% | 2.256% | |||||
| 5. | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | 3.054% | 8.871% | 11.925% | 14.876% | 18.353% | 18.066% | 15.961% | 20.819% | 12.752% | 8.067% | |||||
| 6. | Fizbo 2 | 1.559% | 5.703% | 7.262% | 11.746% | 16.498% | 19.210% | 18.785% | 26.499% | 15.968% | 10.531% | |||||
| 7. | Jonny 8.1 | 0.748% | 3.197% | 3.945% | 7.417% | 12.349% | 16.929% | 20.198% | 39.162% | 21.217% | 17.945% | |||||
| 8. | Fritz 16.10 | 0.284% | 1.424% | 1.708% | 3.790% | 7.416% | 11.891% | 17.159% | 58.036% | 24.760% | 33.276% |
Speculate Fizbo 2 - Fritz 16.10 0-1
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Laser 181205 | 33.729% | 20.915% | 54.644% | 12.702% | 8.566% | 6.562% | 5.536% | 11.990% | 5.283% | 6.707% | |||||
| 2. | Ginkgo 2.18b | 28.073% | 20.946% | 49.019% | 13.308% | 9.344% | 7.241% | 6.430% | 14.658% | 6.304% | 8.354% | |||||
| 3. | Chiron S14 | 20.867% | 17.277% | 38.144% | 13.582% | 10.160% | 8.451% | 7.852% | 21.811% | 8.295% | 13.516% | |||||
| 4. | LCZero v19.1-11248 | 11.958% | 22.257% | 34.215% | 23.114% | 17.357% | 11.326% | 7.232% | 6.756% | 4.420% | 2.336% | |||||
| 5. | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | 3.127% | 9.103% | 12.230% | 15.091% | 18.202% | 17.843% | 15.392% | 21.242% | 12.534% | 8.708% | |||||
| 6. | Fizbo 2 | 1.031% | 3.995% | 5.026% | 8.823% | 13.895% | 17.555% | 19.573% | 35.128% | 19.201% | 15.927% | |||||
| 7. | Jonny 8.1 | 0.721% | 3.176% | 3.897% | 7.621% | 12.502% | 16.678% | 19.214% | 40.088% | 20.959% | 19.129% | |||||
| 8. | Fritz 16.10 | 0.494% | 2.331% | 2.825% | 5.759% | 9.974% | 14.344% | 18.771% | 48.327% | 23.004% | 25.323% |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.94h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.| UTC | No | White | Black |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-12-15 16:14 | 14 | Jonny 8.1 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-15 18:10 | 15 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-15 20:06 | 16 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-15 22:02 | 17 | Chiron S14 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-15 23:58 | 18 | Ginkgo 2.18b | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-16 01:54 | 19 | Laser 181205 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-16 03:50 | 20 | Fritz 16.10 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-16 05:46 | 21 | Fizbo 2 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-16 07:43 | 22 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-16 09:39 | 23 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-16 11:35 | 24 | Chiron S14 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-16 13:31 | 25 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-16 15:27 | 26 | Laser 181205 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-16 17:23 | 27 | Fritz 16.10 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-16 19:19 | 28 | Jonny 8.1 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-16 21:15 | 29 | Fizbo 2 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-16 23:11 | 30 | Jonny 8.1 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-17 01:07 | 31 | Fritz 16.10 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-17 03:04 | 32 | Laser 181205 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-17 05:00 | 33 | Laser 181205 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-17 06:56 | 34 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-17 08:52 | 35 | Chiron S14 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-17 10:48 | 36 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-17 12:44 | 37 | Fizbo 2 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-17 14:40 | 38 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-17 16:36 | 39 | Jonny 8.1 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-17 18:32 | 40 | Fritz 16.10 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-17 20:29 | 41 | Fritz 16.10 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-17 22:25 | 42 | Laser 181205 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-18 00:21 | 43 | Ginkgo 2.18b | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-18 02:17 | 44 | Chiron S14 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-18 04:13 | 45 | Fizbo 2 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-18 06:09 | 46 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-18 08:05 | 47 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-18 10:01 | 48 | Jonny 8.1 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-18 11:57 | 49 | Jonny 8.1 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-18 13:53 | 50 | Fritz 16.10 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-18 15:50 | 51 | Laser 181205 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-18 17:46 | 52 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-18 19:42 | 53 | Fizbo 2 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-18 21:38 | 54 | Chiron S14 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-18 23:34 | 55 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-19 01:30 | 56 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-19 03:26 | 57 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-19 05:22 | 58 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-19 07:18 | 59 | Chiron S14 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-19 09:15 | 60 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-19 11:11 | 61 | Fizbo 2 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-19 13:07 | 62 | Fritz 16.10 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-19 15:03 | 63 | Jonny 8.1 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-19 16:59 | 64 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-19 18:55 | 65 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-19 20:51 | 66 | Chiron S14 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-19 22:47 | 67 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-20 00:43 | 68 | Laser 181205 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-20 02:39 | 69 | Fizbo 2 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-20 04:36 | 70 | Jonny 8.1 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-20 06:32 | 71 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-20 08:28 | 72 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-20 10:24 | 73 | Chiron S14 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-20 12:20 | 74 | Ginkgo 2.18b | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-20 14:16 | 75 | Laser 181205 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-20 16:12 | 76 | Fritz 16.10 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-20 18:08 | 77 | Fizbo 2 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-20 20:04 | 78 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-20 22:01 | 79 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-20 23:57 | 80 | Chiron S14 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-21 01:53 | 81 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-21 03:49 | 82 | Laser 181205 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-21 05:45 | 83 | Fritz 16.10 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-21 07:41 | 84 | Jonny 8.1 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-21 09:37 | 85 | Fizbo 2 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-21 11:33 | 86 | Jonny 8.1 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-21 13:29 | 87 | Fritz 16.10 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-21 15:26 | 88 | Laser 181205 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-21 17:22 | 89 | Laser 181205 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-21 19:18 | 90 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-21 21:14 | 91 | Chiron S14 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-21 23:10 | 92 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-22 01:06 | 93 | Fizbo 2 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-22 03:02 | 94 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-22 04:58 | 95 | Jonny 8.1 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-22 06:54 | 96 | Fritz 16.10 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-22 08:50 | 97 | Fritz 16.10 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-22 10:47 | 98 | Laser 181205 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-22 12:43 | 99 | Ginkgo 2.18b | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-22 14:39 | 100 | Chiron S14 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-22 16:35 | 101 | Fizbo 2 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-22 18:31 | 102 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-22 20:27 | 103 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-22 22:23 | 104 | Jonny 8.1 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-23 00:19 | 105 | Jonny 8.1 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-23 02:15 | 106 | Fritz 16.10 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-23 04:12 | 107 | Laser 181205 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-23 06:08 | 108 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-23 08:04 | 109 | Fizbo 2 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-23 10:00 | 110 | Chiron S14 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-23 11:56 | 111 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-23 13:52 | 112 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Jonny 8.1 |
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