TCEC Season 13 Div 3 pre games simulation

Ratings estimate based on BayesElo by season + update adjustments


Added 170 to LCZero, 220 to Ethereal and 50 to DeusX.

Rank Name Elo + - games score oppo.
52 Ethereal 10.78 3373 75 75 56 70% 3010
60 LCZero 16.10520 3357 103 103 28 71% 3058
66 DeusX 1.0 3210 103 103 28 66% 3062
72 Hannibal ? 3168 39 39 199 44% 3202
77 Pedone ? 3145 96 96 28 57% 3108
92 Arasan TCEC13 3115 100 100 28 39% 3176
94 Bobcat 8 3106 44 44 171 40% 3176
104 Nemorino ? 3083 99 99 28 45% 3117

Situation before games

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7.8.
1.Ethereal 10.7854.027%38.961%92.988%5.724%0.995%0.236%0.039%0.015%0.003%
2.LCZero 16.1052042.958%45.085%88.043%8.908%2.073%0.679%0.209%0.071%0.017%
3.DeusX 1.02.311%9.655%11.966%37.451%21.058%13.335%8.371%5.166%2.653%
4.Pedone ?0.296%2.141% 2.437%13.898%18.913%19.657%18.082%15.420%11.593%
5.Hannibal ?0.242%2.428% 2.670%18.511%26.463%22.255%15.814%9.746%4.541%
6.Arasan TCEC130.118%1.035% 1.153%7.698%12.843%16.496%19.022%21.173%21.615%
7.Nemorino ?0.032%0.374% 0.406%3.625%7.632%11.366%16.421%22.901%37.649%
8.Bobcat 80.016%0.321% 0.337%4.185%10.023%15.976%22.042%25.508%21.929%

Second simulation

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Ethereal 10.7853.998%38.818%92.816%5.816%1.067%0.231%0.055% 0.015%0.013%0.002%
2.LCZero 16.1052042.794%45.260%88.054%8.907%2.056%0.652%0.235% 0.096%0.082%0.014%
3.DeusX 1.02.484%9.679%12.163%37.571%20.908%13.072%8.403% 7.883%5.217%2.666%
4.Pedone ?0.336%2.191% 2.527%13.681%18.871%19.682%18.134%27.105%15.447%11.658%
5.Hannibal ?0.228%2.381% 2.609%18.629%26.952%22.188%15.577%14.045%9.538%4.507%
6.Arasan TCEC130.118%1.017% 1.135%7.684%12.928%16.472%19.073%42.708%21.077%21.631%
7.Nemorino ?0.026%0.363% 0.389%3.624%7.441%11.663%16.279%60.604%23.045%37.559%
8.Bobcat 80.016%0.291% 0.307%4.088%9.777%16.040%22.244%47.544%25.581%21.963%

Comments

  1. LeeAugust 10, 2018 at 12:54 PM

    Anton says GPUs were overheating, so fan speeds will be increases. He reports that DeusX might run twice as fast, and Leela 70 percent faster. (I suppose these are very rough estimates.) This should help AB engines at all. Maybe you should rerun simulation with a few more elo for DeusX and Leela.

    ReplyDelete

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