TCEC Season 14, Division 1, Game 10 speculation simulation

For ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

RankPlayer namePointsEPointsStdDevERank1234567
1Chiron S141.516.414.833.30391497667
2LCZero v19-TP-11248/v19.1-RC2-11248/v19.1-112481.515.962.553.0120272114953
3Laser 1812051.013.984.374.4817141199912
4KomodoMCTS 2180.00/2210.00/2217.00/2221.001.013.932.544.465121718171511
5Fizbo 21.513.562.384.75391518191713
6Ginkgo 2.18b1.013.234.384.89131210991013
7Jonny 8.11.013.122.395.10271216191916
8Fritz 16.100.511.812.446.0313610141925

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1438.233%14.556%52.789%9.152%7.047%6.348%6.306%18.358%7.429%10.929%
2.LCZero v19.1-1124819.029%26.293%45.322%20.647%13.940%9.336%5.914% 4.841%3.340%1.501%
3.Laser 18120517.129%14.571%31.700%10.555%9.047%8.718%9.142%30.838%11.696%19.142%
4.Ginkgo 2.18b13.479%12.561%26.040%9.995%8.783%8.788%9.794%36.600%12.938%23.662%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.005.494%12.268%17.762%16.321%17.450%16.479%14.397%17.591%11.239%6.352%
6.Fizbo 23.377%9.191%12.568%14.723%17.915%18.197%16.656%19.941%12.983%6.958%
7.Jonny 8.12.334%7.322% 9.656%12.195%15.877%18.032%18.483%25.757%15.906%9.851%
8.Fritz 16.100.925%3.238% 4.163%6.412%9.941%14.102%19.308%46.074%24.469%21.605%

Speculate Chiron S14 - KomodoMCTS 2221.00 1-0

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1455.119%15.988%71.107%8.119%5.472%4.311%3.687% 7.304%3.577%3.727%
2.Laser 18120513.717%16.060%29.777%11.543%9.428%8.578%9.191%31.483%11.877%19.606%
3.LCZero v19.1-1124813.536%27.120%40.656%22.071%15.108%9.923%6.513% 5.729%3.904%1.825%
4.Ginkgo 2.18b10.594%13.411%24.005%10.564%9.127%8.626%9.727%37.951%12.883%25.068%
5.Fizbo 22.392%8.428%10.820%14.485%17.809%18.675%16.910%21.301%13.560%7.741%
6.KomodoMCTS 2221.002.292%8.833%11.125%14.100%16.861%17.714%16.791%23.409%14.236%9.173%
7.Jonny 8.11.711%7.052% 8.763%12.623%16.392%18.119%18.258%25.845%15.791%10.054%
8.Fritz 16.100.639%3.108% 3.747%6.495%9.803%14.054%18.923%46.978%24.172%22.806%

Speculate Chiron S14 - KomodoMCTS 2221.00 1/2-1/2

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1430.248%15.932%46.180%10.849%8.723%7.861%7.851%18.536%8.318%10.218%
2.LCZero v19.1-1124822.239%25.512%47.751%19.565%13.390%8.957%5.605% 4.732%3.302%1.430%
3.Laser 18120518.862%13.439%32.301%10.099%8.841%8.414%9.110%31.235%11.762%19.473%
4.Ginkgo 2.18b14.866%11.988%26.854%9.532%8.472%8.398%9.736%37.008%13.012%23.996%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.006.359%13.329%19.688%17.177%17.678%16.532%13.545%15.380%10.047%5.333%
6.Fizbo 23.814%9.313%13.127%14.407%17.396%18.130%16.650%20.290%12.995%7.295%
7.Jonny 8.12.558%7.197% 9.755%12.069%15.721%17.948%18.375%26.132%15.990%10.142%
8.Fritz 16.101.054%3.290% 4.344%6.302%9.779%13.760%19.128%46.687%24.574%22.113%

Speculate Chiron S14 - KomodoMCTS 2221.00 0-1

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.LCZero v19.1-1124827.042%25.577%52.619%18.305%12.368%8.052%4.985% 3.671%2.643%1.028%
2.Laser 18120520.793%12.760%33.553%9.838%8.948%8.889%9.410%29.362%11.910%17.452%
3.Chiron S1416.093%10.943%27.036%9.192%8.411%8.923%10.231%36.207%13.331%22.876%
4.Ginkgo 2.18b16.015%11.421%27.436%9.386%8.643%8.885%10.097%35.553%13.699%21.854%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.0011.353%18.395%29.748%19.753%17.757%13.860%10.124% 8.758%6.189%2.569%
6.Fizbo 24.517%10.122%14.639%15.178%17.957%18.254%16.165%17.807%11.918%5.889%
7.Jonny 8.13.074%7.455%10.529%12.142%15.997%18.707%18.562%24.063%15.530%8.533%
8.Fritz 16.101.113%3.327% 4.440%6.206%9.919%14.430%20.426%44.579%24.780%19.799%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.95h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTCNoWhiteBlack
2018-12-15 10:3411Ginkgo 2.18bJonny 8.1
2018-12-15 12:3112Laser 181205Fritz 16.10
2018-12-15 14:2813Fizbo 2Fritz 16.10
2018-12-15 16:2514Jonny 8.1Laser 181205
2018-12-15 18:2215KomodoMCTS 2221.00Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-15 20:1916LCZero v19.1-11248Chiron S14
2018-12-15 22:1617Chiron S14Fizbo 2
2018-12-16 00:1318Ginkgo 2.18bLCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-16 02:1019Laser 181205KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 04:0720Fritz 16.10Jonny 8.1
2018-12-16 06:0421Fizbo 2Jonny 8.1
2018-12-16 08:0022KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fritz 16.10
2018-12-16 09:5723LCZero v19.1-11248Laser 181205
2018-12-16 11:5424Chiron S14Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-16 13:5125Ginkgo 2.18bFizbo 2
2018-12-16 15:4826Laser 181205Chiron S14
2018-12-16 17:4527Fritz 16.10LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-16 19:4228Jonny 8.1KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 21:3929Fizbo 2KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 23:3630Jonny 8.1LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-17 01:3331Fritz 16.10Chiron S14
2018-12-17 03:3032Laser 181205Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-17 05:2733Laser 181205Fizbo 2
2018-12-17 07:2434Ginkgo 2.18bFritz 16.10
2018-12-17 09:2135Chiron S14Jonny 8.1
2018-12-17 11:1836LCZero v19.1-11248KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-17 13:1537Fizbo 2LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-17 15:1238KomodoMCTS 2221.00Chiron S14
2018-12-17 17:0939Jonny 8.1Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-17 19:0640Fritz 16.10Laser 181205
2018-12-17 21:0341Fritz 16.10Fizbo 2
2018-12-17 23:0042Laser 181205Jonny 8.1
2018-12-18 00:5743Ginkgo 2.18bKomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-18 02:5444Chiron S14LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-18 04:5145Fizbo 2Chiron S14
2018-12-18 06:4846LCZero v19.1-11248Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-18 08:4447KomodoMCTS 2221.00Laser 181205
2018-12-18 10:4148Jonny 8.1Fritz 16.10
2018-12-18 12:3849Jonny 8.1Fizbo 2
2018-12-18 14:3550Fritz 16.10KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-18 16:3251Laser 181205LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-18 18:2952Ginkgo 2.18bChiron S14
2018-12-18 20:2653Fizbo 2Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-18 22:2354Chiron S14Laser 181205
2018-12-19 00:2055LCZero v19.1-11248Fritz 16.10
2018-12-19 02:1756KomodoMCTS 2221.00Jonny 8.1
2018-12-19 04:1457KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fizbo 2
2018-12-19 06:1158LCZero v19.1-11248Jonny 8.1
2018-12-19 08:0859Chiron S14Fritz 16.10
2018-12-19 10:0560Ginkgo 2.18bLaser 181205
2018-12-19 12:0261Fizbo 2Laser 181205
2018-12-19 13:5962Fritz 16.10Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-19 15:5663Jonny 8.1Chiron S14
2018-12-19 17:5364KomodoMCTS 2221.00LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-19 19:5065LCZero v19.1-11248Fizbo 2
2018-12-19 21:4766Chiron S14KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-19 23:4467Ginkgo 2.18bJonny 8.1
2018-12-20 01:4168Laser 181205Fritz 16.10
2018-12-20 03:3869Fizbo 2Fritz 16.10
2018-12-20 05:3570Jonny 8.1Laser 181205
2018-12-20 07:3271KomodoMCTS 2221.00Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-20 09:2972LCZero v19.1-11248Chiron S14
2018-12-20 11:2573Chiron S14Fizbo 2
2018-12-20 13:2274Ginkgo 2.18bLCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-20 15:1975Laser 181205KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-20 17:1676Fritz 16.10Jonny 8.1
2018-12-20 19:1377Fizbo 2Jonny 8.1
2018-12-20 21:1078KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fritz 16.10
2018-12-20 23:0779LCZero v19.1-11248Laser 181205
2018-12-21 01:0480Chiron S14Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-21 03:0181Ginkgo 2.18bFizbo 2
2018-12-21 04:5882Laser 181205Chiron S14
2018-12-21 06:5583Fritz 16.10LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-21 08:5284Jonny 8.1KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-21 10:4985Fizbo 2KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-21 12:4686Jonny 8.1LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-21 14:4387Fritz 16.10Chiron S14
2018-12-21 16:4088Laser 181205Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-21 18:3789Laser 181205Fizbo 2
2018-12-21 20:3490Ginkgo 2.18bFritz 16.10
2018-12-21 22:3191Chiron S14Jonny 8.1
2018-12-22 00:2892LCZero v19.1-11248KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-22 02:2593Fizbo 2LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-22 04:2294KomodoMCTS 2221.00Chiron S14
2018-12-22 06:1995Jonny 8.1Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-22 08:1696Fritz 16.10Laser 181205
2018-12-22 10:1397Fritz 16.10Fizbo 2
2018-12-22 12:0998Laser 181205Jonny 8.1
2018-12-22 14:0699Ginkgo 2.18bKomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-22 16:03100Chiron S14LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-22 18:00101Fizbo 2Chiron S14
2018-12-22 19:57102LCZero v19.1-11248Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-22 21:54103KomodoMCTS 2221.00Laser 181205
2018-12-22 23:51104Jonny 8.1Fritz 16.10
2018-12-23 01:48105Jonny 8.1Fizbo 2
2018-12-23 03:45106Fritz 16.10KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-23 05:42107Laser 181205LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-23 07:39108Ginkgo 2.18bChiron S14
2018-12-23 09:36109Fizbo 2Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-23 11:33110Chiron S14Laser 181205
2018-12-23 13:30111LCZero v19.1-11248Fritz 16.10
2018-12-23 15:27112KomodoMCTS 2221.00Jonny 8.1

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