TCEC Season 14, Division 1, Game 11 speculation simulation

For ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

RankPlayer namePointsEPointsStdDevERank1234567
1LCZero v19-TP-11248/v19.1-RC2-11248/v19.1-112481.516.092.542.9423262013953
2Chiron S142.015.734.203.523116119888
3KomodoMCTS 2180.00/2210.00/2217.00/2221.001.514.192.454.316131818171310
4Laser 1812051.014.054.384.4619131098912
5Fizbo 21.513.632.364.74491418181713
6Ginkgo 2.18b1.013.314.374.86151210891013
7Jonny 8.11.013.172.395.10371216181916
8Fritz 16.100.511.842.436.061369141925

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1430.384%15.855%46.239%10.967%8.531%7.967%7.770%18.526%8.357%10.169%
2.LCZero v19.1-1124822.080%25.502%47.582%19.640%13.483%8.933%5.664% 4.698%3.300%1.398%
3.Laser 18120518.932%13.379%32.311%10.133%8.734%8.580%9.135%31.107%11.823%19.284%
4.Ginkgo 2.18b14.845%11.947%26.792%9.490%8.508%8.580%9.477%37.153%13.011%24.142%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.006.201%13.256%19.457%17.175%17.923%16.291%13.653%15.501%10.114%5.387%
6.Fizbo 23.829%9.580%13.409%14.316%17.395%18.168%16.765%19.947%12.781%7.166%
7.Jonny 8.12.650%7.232% 9.882%11.903%15.636%17.648%18.580%26.351%16.302%10.049%
8.Fritz 16.101.079%3.249% 4.328%6.376%9.790%13.833%18.956%46.717%24.312%22.405%

Speculate Ginkgo 2.18b - Jonny 8.1 1-0

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Ginkgo 2.18b26.263%18.348%44.611%12.623%9.648%7.988%7.520%17.610%7.787%9.823%
2.Chiron S1424.836%16.523%41.359%11.903%9.513%8.130%8.025%21.070%8.753%12.317%
3.Laser 18120524.387%16.303%40.690%11.441%8.809%7.815%7.636%23.609%8.703%14.906%
4.LCZero v19.1-1124816.027%23.991%40.018%21.461%15.495%10.268%6.813% 5.945%3.967%1.978%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.004.193%10.517%14.710%15.782%18.007%17.404%15.042%19.055%11.686%7.369%
6.Fizbo 22.531%7.552%10.083%12.967%16.722%18.525%17.474%24.229%14.754%9.475%
7.Jonny 8.11.057%4.142% 5.199%8.238%12.748%17.051%19.728%37.036%20.647%16.389%
8.Fritz 16.100.706%2.624% 3.330%5.585%9.058%12.819%17.762%51.446%23.703%27.743%

Speculate Ginkgo 2.18b - Jonny 8.1 1/2-1/2

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1431.780%15.569%47.349%10.467%8.481%7.712%7.606%18.385%8.327%10.058%
2.LCZero v19.1-1124823.632%25.927%49.559%18.869%13.001%8.595%5.522% 4.454%3.173%1.281%
3.Laser 18120518.995%13.068%32.063%9.670%8.480%8.373%9.187%32.227%11.665%20.562%
4.Ginkgo 2.18b10.913%10.791%21.704%9.583%9.157%9.558%11.187%38.811%14.581%24.230%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.006.858%13.771%20.629%17.666%17.479%15.973%13.270%14.983%9.695%5.288%
6.Fizbo 24.054%9.893%13.947%14.778%17.548%17.737%16.272%19.718%12.761%6.957%
7.Jonny 8.12.656%7.597%10.253%12.460%16.059%18.262%18.325%24.641%15.688%8.953%
8.Fritz 16.101.112%3.384% 4.496%6.507%9.795%13.790%18.631%46.781%24.110%22.671%

Speculate Ginkgo 2.18b - Jonny 8.1 0-1

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1434.123%15.142%49.265%10.193%8.706%8.051%8.006%15.779%8.366%7.413%
2.LCZero v19.1-1124828.250%26.708%54.958%18.031%11.804%7.671%4.488% 3.048%2.329%0.719%
3.Laser 18120513.808%10.223%24.031%8.580%7.974%8.712%10.731%39.972%16.939%23.033%
4.KomodoMCTS 2221.008.309%16.030%24.339%18.550%18.156%15.620%12.487%10.848%7.736%3.112%
5.Jonny 8.15.110%11.907%17.017%16.424%18.741%18.624%15.679%13.515%10.026%3.489%
6.Fizbo 24.881%11.087%15.968%15.963%18.308%18.502%16.234%15.025%10.833%4.192%
7.Ginkgo 2.18b4.261%4.962% 9.223%5.238%5.719%7.232%10.339%62.249%18.769%43.480%
8.Fritz 16.101.258%3.941% 5.199%7.021%10.592%15.588%22.036%39.564%25.002%14.562%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.92h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTCNoWhiteBlack
2018-12-15 12:1212Laser 181205Fritz 16.10
2018-12-15 14:0813Fizbo 2Fritz 16.10
2018-12-15 16:0314Jonny 8.1Laser 181205
2018-12-15 17:5815KomodoMCTS 2221.00Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-15 19:5316LCZero v19.1-11248Chiron S14
2018-12-15 21:4917Chiron S14Fizbo 2
2018-12-15 23:4418Ginkgo 2.18bLCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-16 01:3919Laser 181205KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 03:3420Fritz 16.10Jonny 8.1
2018-12-16 05:3021Fizbo 2Jonny 8.1
2018-12-16 07:2522KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fritz 16.10
2018-12-16 09:2023LCZero v19.1-11248Laser 181205
2018-12-16 11:1624Chiron S14Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-16 13:1125Ginkgo 2.18bFizbo 2
2018-12-16 15:0626Laser 181205Chiron S14
2018-12-16 17:0127Fritz 16.10LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-16 18:5728Jonny 8.1KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 20:5229Fizbo 2KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 22:4730Jonny 8.1LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-17 00:4231Fritz 16.10Chiron S14
2018-12-17 02:3832Laser 181205Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-17 04:3333Laser 181205Fizbo 2
2018-12-17 06:2834Ginkgo 2.18bFritz 16.10
2018-12-17 08:2435Chiron S14Jonny 8.1
2018-12-17 10:1936LCZero v19.1-11248KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-17 12:1437Fizbo 2LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-17 14:0938KomodoMCTS 2221.00Chiron S14
2018-12-17 16:0539Jonny 8.1Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-17 18:0040Fritz 16.10Laser 181205
2018-12-17 19:5541Fritz 16.10Fizbo 2
2018-12-17 21:5042Laser 181205Jonny 8.1
2018-12-17 23:4643Ginkgo 2.18bKomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-18 01:4144Chiron S14LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-18 03:3645Fizbo 2Chiron S14
2018-12-18 05:3246LCZero v19.1-11248Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-18 07:2747KomodoMCTS 2221.00Laser 181205
2018-12-18 09:2248Jonny 8.1Fritz 16.10
2018-12-18 11:1749Jonny 8.1Fizbo 2
2018-12-18 13:1350Fritz 16.10KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-18 15:0851Laser 181205LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-18 17:0352Ginkgo 2.18bChiron S14
2018-12-18 18:5853Fizbo 2Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-18 20:5454Chiron S14Laser 181205
2018-12-18 22:4955LCZero v19.1-11248Fritz 16.10
2018-12-19 00:4456KomodoMCTS 2221.00Jonny 8.1
2018-12-19 02:4057KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fizbo 2
2018-12-19 04:3558LCZero v19.1-11248Jonny 8.1
2018-12-19 06:3059Chiron S14Fritz 16.10
2018-12-19 08:2560Ginkgo 2.18bLaser 181205
2018-12-19 10:2161Fizbo 2Laser 181205
2018-12-19 12:1662Fritz 16.10Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-19 14:1163Jonny 8.1Chiron S14
2018-12-19 16:0664KomodoMCTS 2221.00LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-19 18:0265LCZero v19.1-11248Fizbo 2
2018-12-19 19:5766Chiron S14KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-19 21:5267Ginkgo 2.18bJonny 8.1
2018-12-19 23:4768Laser 181205Fritz 16.10
2018-12-20 01:4369Fizbo 2Fritz 16.10
2018-12-20 03:3870Jonny 8.1Laser 181205
2018-12-20 05:3371KomodoMCTS 2221.00Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-20 07:2972LCZero v19.1-11248Chiron S14
2018-12-20 09:2473Chiron S14Fizbo 2
2018-12-20 11:1974Ginkgo 2.18bLCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-20 13:1475Laser 181205KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-20 15:1076Fritz 16.10Jonny 8.1
2018-12-20 17:0577Fizbo 2Jonny 8.1
2018-12-20 19:0078KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fritz 16.10
2018-12-20 20:5579LCZero v19.1-11248Laser 181205
2018-12-20 22:5180Chiron S14Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-21 00:4681Ginkgo 2.18bFizbo 2
2018-12-21 02:4182Laser 181205Chiron S14
2018-12-21 04:3783Fritz 16.10LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-21 06:3284Jonny 8.1KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-21 08:2785Fizbo 2KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-21 10:2286Jonny 8.1LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-21 12:1887Fritz 16.10Chiron S14
2018-12-21 14:1388Laser 181205Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-21 16:0889Laser 181205Fizbo 2
2018-12-21 18:0390Ginkgo 2.18bFritz 16.10
2018-12-21 19:5991Chiron S14Jonny 8.1
2018-12-21 21:5492LCZero v19.1-11248KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-21 23:4993Fizbo 2LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-22 01:4594KomodoMCTS 2221.00Chiron S14
2018-12-22 03:4095Jonny 8.1Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-22 05:3596Fritz 16.10Laser 181205
2018-12-22 07:3097Fritz 16.10Fizbo 2
2018-12-22 09:2698Laser 181205Jonny 8.1
2018-12-22 11:2199Ginkgo 2.18bKomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-22 13:16100Chiron S14LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-22 15:11101Fizbo 2Chiron S14
2018-12-22 17:07102LCZero v19.1-11248Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-22 19:02103KomodoMCTS 2221.00Laser 181205
2018-12-22 20:57104Jonny 8.1Fritz 16.10
2018-12-22 22:53105Jonny 8.1Fizbo 2
2018-12-23 00:48106Fritz 16.10KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-23 02:43107Laser 181205LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-23 04:38108Ginkgo 2.18bChiron S14
2018-12-23 06:34109Fizbo 2Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-23 08:29110Chiron S14Laser 181205
2018-12-23 10:24111LCZero v19.1-11248Fritz 16.10
2018-12-23 12:19112KomodoMCTS 2221.00Jonny 8.1

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