TCEC Season 14, Division 1, Game 12 speculation simulation

For ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

RankPlayer namePointsEPointsStdDevERank1234567
1LCZero v19-TP-11248/v19.1-RC2-11248/v19.1-112481.515.602.553.21162422151064
2Ginkgo 2.18b2.015.594.023.552619139878
3Chiron S142.015.204.233.792516129889
4Laser 1812051.015.034.433.902417129889
5KomodoMCTS 2180.00/2210.00/2217.00/2221.001.513.682.464.604111619171512
6Fizbo 21.513.162.355.01271317191815
7Jonny 8.11.012.292.305.6914813172021
8Fritz 16.100.511.442.416.261259131824

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Ginkgo 2.18b26.373%18.237%44.610%12.522%9.614%8.075%7.568%17.611%7.890%9.721%
2.Chiron S1425.038%16.673%41.711%11.951%9.255%8.166%7.918%20.999%8.710%12.289%
3.Laser 18120524.089%16.489%40.578%11.320%8.869%7.749%7.560%23.924%8.775%15.149%
4.LCZero v19.1-1124815.972%23.962%39.934%21.650%15.399%10.354%6.685% 5.978%4.049%1.929%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.004.245%10.598%14.843%16.052%18.031%17.116%14.948%19.010%11.711%7.299%
6.Fizbo 22.464%7.447% 9.911%12.802%16.921%18.535%17.642%24.189%14.811%9.378%
7.Jonny 8.11.097%3.989% 5.086%8.229%12.912%16.869%19.957%36.947%20.675%16.272%
8.Fritz 16.100.722%2.605% 3.327%5.474%8.999%13.136%17.722%51.342%23.379%27.963%

Speculate Laser 181205 - Fritz 16.10 1-0

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Laser 18120533.160%20.667%53.827%12.714%8.793%6.859%5.808%11.999%5.660%6.339%
2.Ginkgo 2.18b27.945%20.680%48.625%13.179%9.201%7.471%6.839%14.685%6.678%8.007%
3.Chiron S1420.986%17.066%38.052%12.895%9.986%8.925%8.315%21.827%8.907%12.920%
4.LCZero v19.1-1124812.031%22.051%34.082%22.854%17.346%11.634%7.427% 6.657%4.520%2.137%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.003.069%8.673%11.742%14.943%18.544%18.162%15.955%20.654%12.591%8.063%
6.Fizbo 21.815%6.357% 8.172%12.269%17.109%19.120%18.287%25.043%15.158%9.885%
7.Jonny 8.10.732%3.182% 3.914%7.419%12.081%16.698%20.417%39.471%21.788%17.683%
8.Fritz 16.100.262%1.324% 1.586%3.727%6.940%11.131%16.952%59.664%24.698%34.966%

Speculate Laser 181205 - Fritz 16.10 1/2-1/2

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1428.612%15.805%44.417%11.124%8.909%7.818%7.534%20.198%8.251%11.947%
2.Ginkgo 2.18b25.871%16.537%42.408%11.630%9.321%8.285%7.839%20.517%8.779%11.738%
3.LCZero v19.1-1124819.654%25.082%44.736%20.502%13.910%9.142%6.275% 5.435%3.676%1.759%
4.Laser 18120515.026%13.944%28.970%11.161%9.775%9.328%9.758%31.008%11.561%19.447%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.005.278%12.160%17.438%16.463%17.877%16.689%13.873%17.660%10.893%6.767%
6.Fizbo 23.260%8.587%11.847%13.654%16.996%17.735%16.688%23.080%13.992%9.088%
7.Jonny 8.11.454%4.710% 6.164%9.184%13.165%16.971%19.407%35.109%19.712%15.397%
8.Fritz 16.100.845%3.175% 4.020%6.282%10.047%14.032%18.626%46.993%23.136%23.857%

Speculate Laser 181205 - Fritz 16.10 0-1

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1431.675%15.661%47.336%10.582%8.533%7.542%7.568%18.439%8.493%9.946%
2.LCZero v19.1-1124823.751%26.381%50.132%19.075%12.481%8.237%5.544% 4.531%3.179%1.352%
3.Ginkgo 2.18b22.572%14.892%37.464%10.999%9.329%8.648%9.048%24.512%11.113%13.399%
4.Laser 1812057.717%7.968%15.685%7.609%7.571%7.972%9.599%51.564%14.579%36.985%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.006.759%14.185%20.944%17.778%17.551%15.717%13.095%14.915%9.675%5.240%
6.Fizbo 23.909%9.761%13.670%14.356%17.239%17.825%16.364%20.546%13.446%7.100%
7.Fritz 16.101.811%5.468% 7.279%9.375%13.026%16.668%19.332%34.320%20.716%13.604%
8.Jonny 8.11.806%5.684% 7.490%10.226%14.270%17.391%19.450%31.173%18.799%12.374%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.94h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTCNoWhiteBlack
2018-12-15 14:2413Fizbo 2Fritz 16.10
2018-12-15 16:2114Jonny 8.1Laser 181205
2018-12-15 18:1715KomodoMCTS 2221.00Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-15 20:1416LCZero v19.1-11248Chiron S14
2018-12-15 22:1117Chiron S14Fizbo 2
2018-12-16 00:0718Ginkgo 2.18bLCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-16 02:0419Laser 181205KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 04:0120Fritz 16.10Jonny 8.1
2018-12-16 05:5721Fizbo 2Jonny 8.1
2018-12-16 07:5422KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fritz 16.10
2018-12-16 09:5123LCZero v19.1-11248Laser 181205
2018-12-16 11:4724Chiron S14Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-16 13:4425Ginkgo 2.18bFizbo 2
2018-12-16 15:4126Laser 181205Chiron S14
2018-12-16 17:3727Fritz 16.10LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-16 19:3428Jonny 8.1KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 21:3129Fizbo 2KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 23:2730Jonny 8.1LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-17 01:2431Fritz 16.10Chiron S14
2018-12-17 03:2032Laser 181205Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-17 05:1733Laser 181205Fizbo 2
2018-12-17 07:1434Ginkgo 2.18bFritz 16.10
2018-12-17 09:1035Chiron S14Jonny 8.1
2018-12-17 11:0736LCZero v19.1-11248KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-17 13:0437Fizbo 2LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-17 15:0038KomodoMCTS 2221.00Chiron S14
2018-12-17 16:5739Jonny 8.1Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-17 18:5440Fritz 16.10Laser 181205
2018-12-17 20:5041Fritz 16.10Fizbo 2
2018-12-17 22:4742Laser 181205Jonny 8.1
2018-12-18 00:4443Ginkgo 2.18bKomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-18 02:4044Chiron S14LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-18 04:3745Fizbo 2Chiron S14
2018-12-18 06:3446LCZero v19.1-11248Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-18 08:3047KomodoMCTS 2221.00Laser 181205
2018-12-18 10:2748Jonny 8.1Fritz 16.10
2018-12-18 12:2449Jonny 8.1Fizbo 2
2018-12-18 14:2050Fritz 16.10KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-18 16:1751Laser 181205LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-18 18:1352Ginkgo 2.18bChiron S14
2018-12-18 20:1053Fizbo 2Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-18 22:0754Chiron S14Laser 181205
2018-12-19 00:0355LCZero v19.1-11248Fritz 16.10
2018-12-19 02:0056KomodoMCTS 2221.00Jonny 8.1
2018-12-19 03:5757KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fizbo 2
2018-12-19 05:5358LCZero v19.1-11248Jonny 8.1
2018-12-19 07:5059Chiron S14Fritz 16.10
2018-12-19 09:4760Ginkgo 2.18bLaser 181205
2018-12-19 11:4361Fizbo 2Laser 181205
2018-12-19 13:4062Fritz 16.10Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-19 15:3763Jonny 8.1Chiron S14
2018-12-19 17:3364KomodoMCTS 2221.00LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-19 19:3065LCZero v19.1-11248Fizbo 2
2018-12-19 21:2766Chiron S14KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-19 23:2367Ginkgo 2.18bJonny 8.1
2018-12-20 01:2068Laser 181205Fritz 16.10
2018-12-20 03:1769Fizbo 2Fritz 16.10
2018-12-20 05:1370Jonny 8.1Laser 181205
2018-12-20 07:1071KomodoMCTS 2221.00Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-20 09:0772LCZero v19.1-11248Chiron S14
2018-12-20 11:0373Chiron S14Fizbo 2
2018-12-20 13:0074Ginkgo 2.18bLCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-20 14:5675Laser 181205KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-20 16:5376Fritz 16.10Jonny 8.1
2018-12-20 18:5077Fizbo 2Jonny 8.1
2018-12-20 20:4678KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fritz 16.10
2018-12-20 22:4379LCZero v19.1-11248Laser 181205
2018-12-21 00:4080Chiron S14Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-21 02:3681Ginkgo 2.18bFizbo 2
2018-12-21 04:3382Laser 181205Chiron S14
2018-12-21 06:3083Fritz 16.10LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-21 08:2684Jonny 8.1KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-21 10:2385Fizbo 2KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-21 12:2086Jonny 8.1LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-21 14:1687Fritz 16.10Chiron S14
2018-12-21 16:1388Laser 181205Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-21 18:1089Laser 181205Fizbo 2
2018-12-21 20:0690Ginkgo 2.18bFritz 16.10
2018-12-21 22:0391Chiron S14Jonny 8.1
2018-12-22 00:0092LCZero v19.1-11248KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-22 01:5693Fizbo 2LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-22 03:5394KomodoMCTS 2221.00Chiron S14
2018-12-22 05:4995Jonny 8.1Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-22 07:4696Fritz 16.10Laser 181205
2018-12-22 09:4397Fritz 16.10Fizbo 2
2018-12-22 11:3998Laser 181205Jonny 8.1
2018-12-22 13:3699Ginkgo 2.18bKomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-22 15:33100Chiron S14LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-22 17:29101Fizbo 2Chiron S14
2018-12-22 19:26102LCZero v19.1-11248Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-22 21:23103KomodoMCTS 2221.00Laser 181205
2018-12-22 23:19104Jonny 8.1Fritz 16.10
2018-12-23 01:16105Jonny 8.1Fizbo 2
2018-12-23 03:13106Fritz 16.10KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-23 05:09107Laser 181205LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-23 07:06108Ginkgo 2.18bChiron S14
2018-12-23 09:03109Fizbo 2Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-23 10:59110Chiron S14Laser 181205
2018-12-23 12:56111LCZero v19.1-11248Fritz 16.10
2018-12-23 14:53112KomodoMCTS 2221.00Jonny 8.1

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