TCEC Season 14, Division 1, Game 5 speculation simulation

For ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

RankPlayer namePointsEPointsStdDevERank1234567
1Chiron S141.017.865.802.93511175567
2LCZero v19-TP-11248/v19.1-RC2-11248/v19.1-112480.516.902.642.5725341810632
3KomodoMCTS 2180.00/2210.00/2217.00/2221.000.514.582.604.04716201916128
4Fizbo 20.514.042.504.434111719181610
5Jonny 8.10.513.692.474.69391519201812
6Fritz 16.100.012.522.525.5014913182221
7Laser 1812050.511.504.215.77588891120
8Ginkgo 2.18b0.510.924.136.06467781120

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1450.493%10.991%61.484%6.537%5.138%4.974%5.562%16.305%6.941%9.364%
2.LCZero v19.1-1124824.884%33.141%58.025%18.043%10.852%6.658%3.924% 2.498%1.897%0.601%
3.KomodoMCTS 2221.006.691%15.592%22.283%19.699%18.506%15.919%12.457%11.136%8.025%3.111%
4.Laser 1812055.513%8.114%13.627%7.716%7.668%8.757%11.640%50.592%20.166%30.426%
5.Ginkgo 2.18b4.224%6.621%10.845%6.771%6.820%8.080%11.153%56.331%20.036%36.295%
6.Fizbo 23.986%11.379%15.365%17.325%19.308%18.390%15.519%14.093%10.059%4.034%
7.Jonny 8.12.988%9.381%12.369%15.041%18.334%19.415%17.552%17.289%12.284%5.005%
8.Fritz 16.101.221%4.781% 6.002%8.868%13.374%17.807%22.193%31.756%20.592%11.164%

Speculate Fizbo 2 - Laser 181205 1-0

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1452.212%10.875%63.087%6.760%5.650%5.943%9.020% 9.540%6.240%3.300%
2.LCZero v19.1-1124827.368%35.085%62.453%17.510%10.128%6.094%3.112% 0.703%0.643%0.060%
3.KomodoMCTS 2221.007.776%18.418%26.194%21.957%19.964%16.612%11.651% 3.622%3.260%0.362%
4.Fizbo 25.652%15.397%21.049%21.239%21.792%18.922%13.416% 3.582%3.252%0.330%
5.Jonny 8.13.744%11.383%15.127%17.771%21.280%21.845%17.976% 6.001%5.335%0.666%
6.Fritz 16.101.543%5.955% 7.498%11.017%16.421%23.165%29.311%12.588%10.851%1.737%
7.Ginkgo 2.18b1.124%1.780% 2.904%2.129%2.602%3.789%7.570%81.006%32.498%48.508%
8.Laser 1812050.581%1.107% 1.688%1.617%2.163%3.630%7.944%82.958%37.921%45.037%

Speculate Fizbo 2 - Laser 181205 1/2-1/2

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1444.635%12.759%57.394%7.238%5.573%4.820%5.283%19.692%6.681%13.011%
2.LCZero v19.1-1124817.815%28.223%46.038%21.692%13.838%8.674%5.400% 4.358%3.098%1.260%
3.Ginkgo 2.18b15.085%14.761%29.846%10.031%8.258%7.500%8.345%36.020%11.512%24.508%
4.Laser 18120513.254%15.883%29.137%12.577%10.399%9.563%10.073%28.251%12.280%15.971%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.004.324%11.386%15.710%16.612%18.101%17.193%14.513%17.871%11.488%6.383%
6.Fizbo 22.298%7.609% 9.907%13.412%17.468%19.173%17.829%22.211%14.308%7.903%
7.Jonny 8.11.845%6.314% 8.159%11.651%15.825%18.552%19.038%26.775%16.676%10.099%
8.Fritz 16.100.744%3.065% 3.809%6.787%10.538%14.525%19.519%44.822%23.957%20.865%

Speculate Fizbo 2 - Laser 181205 0-1

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Laser 18120542.516%33.856%76.372%14.292%4.434%2.000%1.286% 1.616%0.926%0.690%
2.Ginkgo 2.18b36.755%32.173%68.928%15.608%5.887%3.129%2.207% 4.241%1.982%2.259%
3.Chiron S1418.382%18.518%36.900%19.121%9.147%6.385%5.678%22.769%6.621%16.148%
4.LCZero v19.1-112481.830%10.281%12.111%27.478%28.873%15.127%8.799% 7.612%5.133%2.479%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.000.300%2.470% 2.770%9.975%18.484%22.114%19.466%27.191%16.108%11.083%
6.Fizbo 20.094%1.153% 1.247%5.745%13.464%19.433%22.303%37.808%21.390%16.418%
7.Jonny 8.10.093%1.092% 1.185%5.319%12.652%19.333%21.963%39.548%21.955%17.593%
8.Fritz 16.100.030%0.457% 0.487%2.462%7.059%12.479%18.298%59.215%25.885%33.330%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.78h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTCNoWhiteBlack
2018-12-14 23:596Fritz 16.10Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-15 01:467Jonny 8.1Chiron S14
2018-12-15 03:338KomodoMCTS 2221.00LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-15 05:209LCZero v19.1-11248Fizbo 2
2018-12-15 07:0710Chiron S14KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-15 08:5311Ginkgo 2.18bJonny 8.1
2018-12-15 10:4012Laser 181205Fritz 16.10
2018-12-15 12:2713Fizbo 2Fritz 16.10
2018-12-15 14:1414Jonny 8.1Laser 181205
2018-12-15 16:0115KomodoMCTS 2221.00Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-15 17:4816LCZero v19.1-11248Chiron S14
2018-12-15 19:3517Chiron S14Fizbo 2
2018-12-15 21:2218Ginkgo 2.18bLCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-15 23:0919Laser 181205KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 00:5620Fritz 16.10Jonny 8.1
2018-12-16 02:4321Fizbo 2Jonny 8.1
2018-12-16 04:3022KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fritz 16.10
2018-12-16 06:1623LCZero v19.1-11248Laser 181205
2018-12-16 08:0324Chiron S14Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-16 09:5025Ginkgo 2.18bFizbo 2
2018-12-16 11:3726Laser 181205Chiron S14
2018-12-16 13:2427Fritz 16.10LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-16 15:1128Jonny 8.1KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 16:5829Fizbo 2KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 18:4530Jonny 8.1LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-16 20:3231Fritz 16.10Chiron S14
2018-12-16 22:1932Laser 181205Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-17 00:0633Laser 181205Fizbo 2
2018-12-17 01:5334Ginkgo 2.18bFritz 16.10
2018-12-17 03:3935Chiron S14Jonny 8.1
2018-12-17 05:2636LCZero v19.1-11248KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-17 07:1337Fizbo 2LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-17 09:0038KomodoMCTS 2221.00Chiron S14
2018-12-17 10:4739Jonny 8.1Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-17 12:3440Fritz 16.10Laser 181205
2018-12-17 14:2141Fritz 16.10Fizbo 2
2018-12-17 16:0842Laser 181205Jonny 8.1
2018-12-17 17:5543Ginkgo 2.18bKomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-17 19:4244Chiron S14LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-17 21:2945Fizbo 2Chiron S14
2018-12-17 23:1646LCZero v19.1-11248Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-18 01:0247KomodoMCTS 2221.00Laser 181205
2018-12-18 02:4948Jonny 8.1Fritz 16.10
2018-12-18 04:3649Jonny 8.1Fizbo 2
2018-12-18 06:2350Fritz 16.10KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-18 08:1051Laser 181205LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-18 09:5752Ginkgo 2.18bChiron S14
2018-12-18 11:4453Fizbo 2Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-18 13:3154Chiron S14Laser 181205
2018-12-18 15:1855LCZero v19.1-11248Fritz 16.10
2018-12-18 17:0556KomodoMCTS 2221.00Jonny 8.1
2018-12-18 18:5257KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fizbo 2
2018-12-18 20:3958LCZero v19.1-11248Jonny 8.1
2018-12-18 22:2559Chiron S14Fritz 16.10
2018-12-19 00:1260Ginkgo 2.18bLaser 181205
2018-12-19 01:5961Fizbo 2Laser 181205
2018-12-19 03:4662Fritz 16.10Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-19 05:3363Jonny 8.1Chiron S14
2018-12-19 07:2064KomodoMCTS 2221.00LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-19 09:0765LCZero v19.1-11248Fizbo 2
2018-12-19 10:5466Chiron S14KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-19 12:4167Ginkgo 2.18bJonny 8.1
2018-12-19 14:2868Laser 181205Fritz 16.10
2018-12-19 16:1569Fizbo 2Fritz 16.10
2018-12-19 18:0270Jonny 8.1Laser 181205
2018-12-19 19:4871KomodoMCTS 2221.00Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-19 21:3572LCZero v19.1-11248Chiron S14
2018-12-19 23:2273Chiron S14Fizbo 2
2018-12-20 01:0974Ginkgo 2.18bLCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-20 02:5675Laser 181205KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-20 04:4376Fritz 16.10Jonny 8.1
2018-12-20 06:3077Fizbo 2Jonny 8.1
2018-12-20 08:1778KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fritz 16.10
2018-12-20 10:0479LCZero v19.1-11248Laser 181205
2018-12-20 11:5180Chiron S14Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-20 13:3881Ginkgo 2.18bFizbo 2
2018-12-20 15:2582Laser 181205Chiron S14
2018-12-20 17:1183Fritz 16.10LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-20 18:5884Jonny 8.1KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-20 20:4585Fizbo 2KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-20 22:3286Jonny 8.1LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-21 00:1987Fritz 16.10Chiron S14
2018-12-21 02:0688Laser 181205Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-21 03:5389Laser 181205Fizbo 2
2018-12-21 05:4090Ginkgo 2.18bFritz 16.10
2018-12-21 07:2791Chiron S14Jonny 8.1
2018-12-21 09:1492LCZero v19.1-11248KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-21 11:0193Fizbo 2LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-21 12:4894KomodoMCTS 2221.00Chiron S14
2018-12-21 14:3495Jonny 8.1Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-21 16:2196Fritz 16.10Laser 181205
2018-12-21 18:0897Fritz 16.10Fizbo 2
2018-12-21 19:5598Laser 181205Jonny 8.1
2018-12-21 21:4299Ginkgo 2.18bKomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-21 23:29100Chiron S14LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-22 01:16101Fizbo 2Chiron S14
2018-12-22 03:03102LCZero v19.1-11248Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-22 04:50103KomodoMCTS 2221.00Laser 181205
2018-12-22 06:37104Jonny 8.1Fritz 16.10
2018-12-22 08:24105Jonny 8.1Fizbo 2
2018-12-22 10:11106Fritz 16.10KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-22 11:57107Laser 181205LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-22 13:44108Ginkgo 2.18bChiron S14
2018-12-22 15:31109Fizbo 2Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-22 17:18110Chiron S14Laser 181205
2018-12-22 19:05111LCZero v19.1-11248Fritz 16.10
2018-12-22 20:52112KomodoMCTS 2221.00Jonny 8.1

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

TCEC Season 14, Division 1, Game 12: Laser 181205-Fritz 16.10

Currently playing: 13. Fizbo 2-Fritz 16.10 Previous game 12. Laser 181205-Fritz 16.10 1-0 added to BayesElo lists, result table: Seed: 1544883383494712 Pos Engine Rating Points Games -Crash Direct encounter Wins Black wins SB Coin 1. Ginkgo 2.18b 3324±233 2.0 3 0 0.5 1 0 2.25 0.63 2. Laser 181205 3315±255 2.0 3 0 0.5 1 0 2.25 0.21 3. Chiron S14 3315±248 2.0 3 0 0.0 1 0 1.75 0.74 4. Fizbo 2 3262±36 1.5 3 0 1.0 0 0 2.50 0.84 5. KomodoMCTS 2221.00 3279±57 1.5 3 0 1.0 0 0 2.50 0.40 6. LCZero v19.1-11248 3336±73 1.5 3 0 1.0 0 0 2.00 0.19 7. Jonny 8.1 3250±30 1.0 3 0 0.0 0 0 1.75 0.04 8. Fritz 16.10 3232±52 0.5 3 0 0.0 0 0 1.00 0.33 Gull 3 is used as offset at 3217. Difference for some values in parenthesis if any. Created using Bayesian-Elo and some local scripts. Search for 'version' for individual rating for each version. Search for 'One rating' for one rating for each progam (not useful).
Read more

TCEC Season 14, Division 1, Game 13 speculation simulation

For ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post Output from BayesElo program Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 Laser 181205 2.0 16.62 4.03 3.03 33 21 13 9 7 6 5 2 Ginkgo 2.18b 2.0 16.06 4.06 3.31 28 21 13 9 8 7 6 3 LCZero v19-TP-11248/v19.1-RC2-11248/v19.1-11248 1.5 15.28 2.55 3.41 12 22 24 18 11 7 4 4 Chiron S14 2.0 14.93 4.23 3.92 21 17 13 10 9 8 9 5 KomodoMCTS 2180.00/2210.00/2217.00/2221.00 1.5 13.36 2.43 4.78 3 9 15 19 19 16 13 6 Fizbo 2 1.5 12.95 2.33 5.10 2 6 12 17 20 19 15 7 Jonny 8.1 1.0 11.97 2.28 5.83 1 3 7 12 17 21 23 8 Fritz 16.10 0.5 10.81 2.33 6.61 0 1 3 6 10 16 25 Situation before game, simulation about most common position 100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8. 1.
Read more