TCEC Season 14, Division 1, Game 6 speculation simulation

For ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

RankPlayer namePointsEPointsStdDevERank1234567
1Chiron S141.017.195.923.18451375557
2LCZero v19-TP-11248/v19.1-RC2-11248/v19.1-112480.516.072.712.9718292214853
3Laser 1812051.013.944.174.4513161311101012
4KomodoMCTS 2180.00/2210.00/2217.00/2221.000.513.722.644.544111719171511
5Ginkgo 2.18b0.513.485.014.7015151088812
6Fizbo 21.013.152.474.95271318191814
7Jonny 8.10.512.822.525.20261116181917
8Fritz 16.100.011.632.566.0113610141925

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1444.516%12.720%57.236%7.324%5.664%4.879%5.127%19.770%6.761%13.009%
2.LCZero v19.1-1124817.711%28.374%46.085%21.677%13.781%8.744%5.393% 4.320%3.040%1.280%
3.Ginkgo 2.18b15.270%14.383%29.653%10.156%8.204%7.649%8.354%35.984%11.611%24.373%
4.Laser 18120513.117%15.774%28.891%12.637%10.500%9.524%10.170%28.278%12.261%16.017%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.004.413%11.514%15.927%16.611%18.251%16.907%14.810%17.494%11.235%6.259%
6.Fizbo 22.381%7.599% 9.980%13.173%17.536%19.051%17.846%22.414%14.469%7.945%
7.Jonny 8.11.811%6.450% 8.261%11.817%15.815%18.515%18.830%26.762%16.650%10.112%
8.Fritz 16.100.781%3.186% 3.967%6.605%10.249%14.731%19.470%44.978%23.973%21.005%

Speculate Fritz 16.10 - Ginkgo 2.18b 1-0

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1450.620%10.868%61.488%6.460%5.101%5.040%5.823%16.088%7.676%8.412%
2.LCZero v19.1-1124824.538%33.240%57.778%18.157%10.896%6.714%3.951% 2.504%1.963%0.541%
3.Laser 1812057.450%9.753%17.203%8.554%8.291%8.999%11.895%45.058%22.164%22.894%
4.KomodoMCTS 2221.006.513%15.642%22.155%19.884%18.385%16.084%12.738%10.754%8.000%2.754%
5.Fizbo 23.459%10.595%14.054%16.340%19.227%19.266%16.992%14.121%10.793%3.328%
6.Jonny 8.12.975%9.441%12.416%15.163%18.234%19.153%18.020%17.014%12.551%4.463%
7.Ginkgo 2.18b2.783%4.338% 7.121%4.531%4.778%5.719%8.375%69.476%18.544%50.932%
8.Fritz 16.101.662%6.123% 7.785%10.911%15.088%19.025%22.206%24.985%18.309%6.676%

Speculate Fritz 16.10 - Ginkgo 2.18b 1/2-1/2

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1446.200%12.068%58.268%7.257%5.301%4.743%5.072%19.359%6.383%12.976%
2.LCZero v19.1-1124818.921%29.013%47.934%20.926%13.420%8.306%5.166% 4.248%2.941%1.307%
3.Laser 18120513.947%15.487%29.434%11.746%9.764%9.067%9.505%30.484%12.205%18.279%
4.Ginkgo 2.18b10.971%13.193%24.164%10.929%9.371%9.239%9.918%36.379%13.371%23.008%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.004.663%12.211%16.874%16.832%17.960%16.735%14.437%17.162%10.950%6.212%
6.Fizbo 22.519%8.032%10.551%13.998%17.744%18.782%17.284%21.641%13.802%7.839%
7.Jonny 8.12.005%6.912% 8.917%11.848%16.121%18.260%18.606%26.248%16.117%10.131%
8.Fritz 16.100.774%3.084% 3.858%6.464%10.319%14.868%20.012%44.479%24.231%20.248%

Speculate Fritz 16.10 - Ginkgo 2.18b 0-1

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1436.020%15.683%51.703%9.567%6.483%5.421%5.254%21.572%6.627%14.945%
2.Ginkgo 2.18b30.398%23.503%53.901%13.391%8.728%6.316%5.660%12.004%5.707%6.297%
3.Laser 18120519.443%21.675%41.118%15.644%10.490%8.104%7.226%17.418%7.498%9.920%
4.LCZero v19.1-112489.817%22.113%31.930%25.106%18.605%11.286%7.066% 6.007%4.174%1.833%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.002.131%7.379% 9.510%13.605%18.266%18.961%17.179%22.479%13.766%8.713%
6.Fizbo 21.151%4.789% 5.940%10.737%16.516%19.985%19.895%26.927%16.627%10.300%
7.Jonny 8.10.877%3.674% 4.551%8.716%14.242%18.457%20.311%33.723%19.667%14.056%
8.Fritz 16.100.163%1.184% 1.347%3.234%6.670%11.470%17.409%59.870%25.934%33.936%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.87h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTCNoWhiteBlack
2018-12-15 02:187Jonny 8.1Chiron S14
2018-12-15 04:108KomodoMCTS 2221.00LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-15 06:039LCZero v19.1-11248Fizbo 2
2018-12-15 07:5510Chiron S14KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-15 09:4711Ginkgo 2.18bJonny 8.1
2018-12-15 11:3912Laser 181205Fritz 16.10
2018-12-15 13:3213Fizbo 2Fritz 16.10
2018-12-15 15:2414Jonny 8.1Laser 181205
2018-12-15 17:1615KomodoMCTS 2221.00Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-15 19:0816LCZero v19.1-11248Chiron S14
2018-12-15 21:0117Chiron S14Fizbo 2
2018-12-15 22:5318Ginkgo 2.18bLCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-16 00:4519Laser 181205KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 02:3820Fritz 16.10Jonny 8.1
2018-12-16 04:3021Fizbo 2Jonny 8.1
2018-12-16 06:2222KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fritz 16.10
2018-12-16 08:1423LCZero v19.1-11248Laser 181205
2018-12-16 10:0724Chiron S14Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-16 11:5925Ginkgo 2.18bFizbo 2
2018-12-16 13:5126Laser 181205Chiron S14
2018-12-16 15:4427Fritz 16.10LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-16 17:3628Jonny 8.1KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 19:2829Fizbo 2KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 21:2030Jonny 8.1LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-16 23:1331Fritz 16.10Chiron S14
2018-12-17 01:0532Laser 181205Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-17 02:5733Laser 181205Fizbo 2
2018-12-17 04:5034Ginkgo 2.18bFritz 16.10
2018-12-17 06:4235Chiron S14Jonny 8.1
2018-12-17 08:3436LCZero v19.1-11248KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-17 10:2637Fizbo 2LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-17 12:1938KomodoMCTS 2221.00Chiron S14
2018-12-17 14:1139Jonny 8.1Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-17 16:0340Fritz 16.10Laser 181205
2018-12-17 17:5541Fritz 16.10Fizbo 2
2018-12-17 19:4842Laser 181205Jonny 8.1
2018-12-17 21:4043Ginkgo 2.18bKomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-17 23:3244Chiron S14LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-18 01:2545Fizbo 2Chiron S14
2018-12-18 03:1746LCZero v19.1-11248Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-18 05:0947KomodoMCTS 2221.00Laser 181205
2018-12-18 07:0148Jonny 8.1Fritz 16.10
2018-12-18 08:5449Jonny 8.1Fizbo 2
2018-12-18 10:4650Fritz 16.10KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-18 12:3851Laser 181205LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-18 14:3152Ginkgo 2.18bChiron S14
2018-12-18 16:2353Fizbo 2Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-18 18:1554Chiron S14Laser 181205
2018-12-18 20:0755LCZero v19.1-11248Fritz 16.10
2018-12-18 22:0056KomodoMCTS 2221.00Jonny 8.1
2018-12-18 23:5257KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fizbo 2
2018-12-19 01:4458LCZero v19.1-11248Jonny 8.1
2018-12-19 03:3659Chiron S14Fritz 16.10
2018-12-19 05:2960Ginkgo 2.18bLaser 181205
2018-12-19 07:2161Fizbo 2Laser 181205
2018-12-19 09:1362Fritz 16.10Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-19 11:0663Jonny 8.1Chiron S14
2018-12-19 12:5864KomodoMCTS 2221.00LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-19 14:5065LCZero v19.1-11248Fizbo 2
2018-12-19 16:4266Chiron S14KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-19 18:3567Ginkgo 2.18bJonny 8.1
2018-12-19 20:2768Laser 181205Fritz 16.10
2018-12-19 22:1969Fizbo 2Fritz 16.10
2018-12-20 00:1270Jonny 8.1Laser 181205
2018-12-20 02:0471KomodoMCTS 2221.00Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-20 03:5672LCZero v19.1-11248Chiron S14
2018-12-20 05:4873Chiron S14Fizbo 2
2018-12-20 07:4174Ginkgo 2.18bLCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-20 09:3375Laser 181205KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-20 11:2576Fritz 16.10Jonny 8.1
2018-12-20 13:1877Fizbo 2Jonny 8.1
2018-12-20 15:1078KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fritz 16.10
2018-12-20 17:0279LCZero v19.1-11248Laser 181205
2018-12-20 18:5480Chiron S14Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-20 20:4781Ginkgo 2.18bFizbo 2
2018-12-20 22:3982Laser 181205Chiron S14
2018-12-21 00:3183Fritz 16.10LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-21 02:2384Jonny 8.1KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-21 04:1685Fizbo 2KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-21 06:0886Jonny 8.1LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-21 08:0087Fritz 16.10Chiron S14
2018-12-21 09:5388Laser 181205Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-21 11:4589Laser 181205Fizbo 2
2018-12-21 13:3790Ginkgo 2.18bFritz 16.10
2018-12-21 15:2991Chiron S14Jonny 8.1
2018-12-21 17:2292LCZero v19.1-11248KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-21 19:1493Fizbo 2LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-21 21:0694KomodoMCTS 2221.00Chiron S14
2018-12-21 22:5995Jonny 8.1Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-22 00:5196Fritz 16.10Laser 181205
2018-12-22 02:4397Fritz 16.10Fizbo 2
2018-12-22 04:3598Laser 181205Jonny 8.1
2018-12-22 06:2899Ginkgo 2.18bKomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-22 08:20100Chiron S14LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-22 10:12101Fizbo 2Chiron S14
2018-12-22 12:04102LCZero v19.1-11248Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-22 13:57103KomodoMCTS 2221.00Laser 181205
2018-12-22 15:49104Jonny 8.1Fritz 16.10
2018-12-22 17:41105Jonny 8.1Fizbo 2
2018-12-22 19:34106Fritz 16.10KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-22 21:26107Laser 181205LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-22 23:18108Ginkgo 2.18bChiron S14
2018-12-23 01:10109Fizbo 2Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-23 03:03110Chiron S14Laser 181205
2018-12-23 04:55111LCZero v19.1-11248Fritz 16.10
2018-12-23 06:47112KomodoMCTS 2221.00Jonny 8.1

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