TCEC Season 14, Division 1, Game 7 speculation simulation

For ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

RankPlayer namePointsEPointsStdDevERank1234567
1Chiron S141.017.255.913.15471275556
2LCZero v19-TP-11248/v19.1-RC2-11248/v19.1-112480.516.162.702.8920302113853
3Laser 1812051.013.874.434.50151611109912
4KomodoMCTS 2180.00/2210.00/2217.00/2221.000.513.802.634.475121718171411
5Fizbo 21.013.232.444.90281418191814
6Ginkgo 2.18b1.013.074.014.959131210101114
7Jonny 8.10.512.902.495.15271216181916
8Fritz 16.100.511.712.445.9913610152025

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1446.390%11.700%58.090%7.005%5.369%4.790%4.949%19.797%6.444%13.353%
2.LCZero v19.1-1124819.469%29.232%48.701%20.348%13.113%8.261%5.229% 4.348%3.034%1.314%
3.Laser 18120514.750%15.766%30.516%11.533%9.233%8.615%9.201%30.902%11.731%19.171%
4.Ginkgo 2.18b9.478%13.089%22.567%11.330%10.272%9.881%10.817%35.133%14.116%21.017%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.004.709%12.245%16.954%17.303%17.971%16.537%14.090%17.145%10.833%6.312%
6.Fizbo 22.468%8.137%10.605%13.786%17.444%18.799%17.593%21.773%13.833%7.940%
7.Jonny 8.12.005%6.813% 8.818%12.079%16.148%18.232%18.394%26.329%16.008%10.321%
8.Fritz 16.100.731%3.018% 3.749%6.616%10.450%14.885%19.727%44.573%24.001%20.572%

Speculate Jonny 8.1 - Chiron S14 1-0

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.LCZero v19.1-1124829.035%26.125%55.160%17.633%11.416%7.482%4.710% 3.599%2.584%1.015%
2.Laser 18120519.927%13.527%33.454%10.525%9.056%8.985%9.700%28.280%12.412%15.868%
3.Chiron S1418.375%10.108%28.483%7.644%6.995%7.133%8.468%41.277%12.429%28.848%
4.Ginkgo 2.18b15.506%12.122%27.628%9.747%8.806%9.131%10.450%34.238%14.076%20.162%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.007.558%14.026%21.584%17.341%17.166%15.806%13.298%14.805%9.806%4.999%
6.Jonny 8.14.329%10.820%15.149%15.420%18.345%18.353%15.912%16.821%11.579%5.242%
7.Fizbo 24.163%9.707%13.870%14.959%17.763%18.200%16.597%18.611%12.422%6.189%
8.Fritz 16.101.107%3.565% 4.672%6.731%10.453%14.910%20.865%42.369%24.692%17.677%

Speculate Jonny 8.1 - Chiron S14 1/2-1/2

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1436.861%14.844%51.705%9.739%7.401%6.442%6.344%18.369%7.417%10.952%
2.LCZero v19.1-1124822.804%27.639%50.443%19.647%12.549%8.039%5.098% 4.224%3.000%1.224%
3.Laser 18120516.223%14.440%30.663%11.067%9.349%8.950%9.313%30.658%11.862%18.796%
4.Ginkgo 2.18b12.791%12.342%25.133%10.409%9.247%8.732%9.769%36.710%12.878%23.832%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.005.455%12.406%17.861%16.910%17.644%16.316%14.125%17.144%10.859%6.285%
6.Fizbo 22.951%8.325%11.276%13.550%17.292%18.600%17.330%21.952%13.885%8.067%
7.Jonny 8.12.079%6.909% 8.988%12.367%16.336%18.466%18.358%25.485%15.848%9.637%
8.Fritz 16.100.836%3.095% 3.931%6.311%10.182%14.455%19.663%45.458%24.251%21.207%

Speculate Jonny 8.1 - Chiron S14 0-1

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1467.076%11.437%78.513%5.771%3.753%2.953%2.698% 6.312%2.735%3.577%
2.LCZero v19.1-1124811.557%31.091%42.648%23.428%14.278%9.164%5.616% 4.866%3.429%1.437%
3.Laser 1812059.315%17.666%26.981%12.770%10.041%9.242%9.385%31.581%11.936%19.645%
4.Ginkgo 2.18b7.119%14.632%21.751%11.786%9.866%9.197%9.922%37.478%12.948%24.530%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.002.633%10.976%13.609%16.801%18.685%17.305%14.801%18.799%11.733%7.066%
6.Fizbo 21.308%6.912% 8.220%13.058%17.777%19.141%18.161%23.643%14.757%8.886%
7.Jonny 8.10.604%4.458% 5.062%9.742%14.769%18.204%19.886%32.337%18.900%13.437%
8.Fritz 16.100.388%2.828% 3.216%6.644%10.831%14.794%19.531%44.984%23.562%21.422%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.94h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTCNoWhiteBlack
2018-12-15 04:408KomodoMCTS 2221.00LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-15 06:379LCZero v19.1-11248Fizbo 2
2018-12-15 08:3310Chiron S14KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-15 10:3011Ginkgo 2.18bJonny 8.1
2018-12-15 12:2612Laser 181205Fritz 16.10
2018-12-15 14:2313Fizbo 2Fritz 16.10
2018-12-15 16:2014Jonny 8.1Laser 181205
2018-12-15 18:1615KomodoMCTS 2221.00Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-15 20:1316LCZero v19.1-11248Chiron S14
2018-12-15 22:0917Chiron S14Fizbo 2
2018-12-16 00:0618Ginkgo 2.18bLCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-16 02:0219Laser 181205KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 03:5920Fritz 16.10Jonny 8.1
2018-12-16 05:5521Fizbo 2Jonny 8.1
2018-12-16 07:5222KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fritz 16.10
2018-12-16 09:4823LCZero v19.1-11248Laser 181205
2018-12-16 11:4524Chiron S14Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-16 13:4225Ginkgo 2.18bFizbo 2
2018-12-16 15:3826Laser 181205Chiron S14
2018-12-16 17:3527Fritz 16.10LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-16 19:3128Jonny 8.1KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 21:2829Fizbo 2KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 23:2430Jonny 8.1LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-17 01:2131Fritz 16.10Chiron S14
2018-12-17 03:1732Laser 181205Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-17 05:1433Laser 181205Fizbo 2
2018-12-17 07:1134Ginkgo 2.18bFritz 16.10
2018-12-17 09:0735Chiron S14Jonny 8.1
2018-12-17 11:0436LCZero v19.1-11248KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-17 13:0037Fizbo 2LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-17 14:5738KomodoMCTS 2221.00Chiron S14
2018-12-17 16:5339Jonny 8.1Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-17 18:5040Fritz 16.10Laser 181205
2018-12-17 20:4641Fritz 16.10Fizbo 2
2018-12-17 22:4342Laser 181205Jonny 8.1
2018-12-18 00:4043Ginkgo 2.18bKomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-18 02:3644Chiron S14LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-18 04:3345Fizbo 2Chiron S14
2018-12-18 06:2946LCZero v19.1-11248Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-18 08:2647KomodoMCTS 2221.00Laser 181205
2018-12-18 10:2248Jonny 8.1Fritz 16.10
2018-12-18 12:1949Jonny 8.1Fizbo 2
2018-12-18 14:1550Fritz 16.10KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-18 16:1251Laser 181205LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-18 18:0952Ginkgo 2.18bChiron S14
2018-12-18 20:0553Fizbo 2Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-18 22:0254Chiron S14Laser 181205
2018-12-18 23:5855LCZero v19.1-11248Fritz 16.10
2018-12-19 01:5556KomodoMCTS 2221.00Jonny 8.1
2018-12-19 03:5157KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fizbo 2
2018-12-19 05:4858LCZero v19.1-11248Jonny 8.1
2018-12-19 07:4459Chiron S14Fritz 16.10
2018-12-19 09:4160Ginkgo 2.18bLaser 181205
2018-12-19 11:3861Fizbo 2Laser 181205
2018-12-19 13:3462Fritz 16.10Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-19 15:3163Jonny 8.1Chiron S14
2018-12-19 17:2764KomodoMCTS 2221.00LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-19 19:2465LCZero v19.1-11248Fizbo 2
2018-12-19 21:2066Chiron S14KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-19 23:1767Ginkgo 2.18bJonny 8.1
2018-12-20 01:1368Laser 181205Fritz 16.10
2018-12-20 03:1069Fizbo 2Fritz 16.10
2018-12-20 05:0770Jonny 8.1Laser 181205
2018-12-20 07:0371KomodoMCTS 2221.00Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-20 09:0072LCZero v19.1-11248Chiron S14
2018-12-20 10:5673Chiron S14Fizbo 2
2018-12-20 12:5374Ginkgo 2.18bLCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-20 14:4975Laser 181205KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-20 16:4676Fritz 16.10Jonny 8.1
2018-12-20 18:4277Fizbo 2Jonny 8.1
2018-12-20 20:3978KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fritz 16.10
2018-12-20 22:3679LCZero v19.1-11248Laser 181205
2018-12-21 00:3280Chiron S14Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-21 02:2981Ginkgo 2.18bFizbo 2
2018-12-21 04:2582Laser 181205Chiron S14
2018-12-21 06:2283Fritz 16.10LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-21 08:1884Jonny 8.1KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-21 10:1585Fizbo 2KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-21 12:1186Jonny 8.1LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-21 14:0887Fritz 16.10Chiron S14
2018-12-21 16:0588Laser 181205Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-21 18:0189Laser 181205Fizbo 2
2018-12-21 19:5890Ginkgo 2.18bFritz 16.10
2018-12-21 21:5491Chiron S14Jonny 8.1
2018-12-21 23:5192LCZero v19.1-11248KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-22 01:4793Fizbo 2LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-22 03:4494KomodoMCTS 2221.00Chiron S14
2018-12-22 05:4095Jonny 8.1Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-22 07:3796Fritz 16.10Laser 181205
2018-12-22 09:3497Fritz 16.10Fizbo 2
2018-12-22 11:3098Laser 181205Jonny 8.1
2018-12-22 13:2799Ginkgo 2.18bKomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-22 15:23100Chiron S14LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-22 17:20101Fizbo 2Chiron S14
2018-12-22 19:16102LCZero v19.1-11248Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-22 21:13103KomodoMCTS 2221.00Laser 181205
2018-12-22 23:09104Jonny 8.1Fritz 16.10
2018-12-23 01:06105Jonny 8.1Fizbo 2
2018-12-23 03:03106Fritz 16.10KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-23 04:59107Laser 181205LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-23 06:56108Ginkgo 2.18bChiron S14
2018-12-23 08:52109Fizbo 2Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-23 10:49110Chiron S14Laser 181205
2018-12-23 12:45111LCZero v19.1-11248Fritz 16.10
2018-12-23 14:42112KomodoMCTS 2221.00Jonny 8.1

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

TCEC Season 14, Division 1, Game 12: Laser 181205-Fritz 16.10

Currently playing: 13. Fizbo 2-Fritz 16.10 Previous game 12. Laser 181205-Fritz 16.10 1-0 added to BayesElo lists, result table: Seed: 1544883383494712 Pos Engine Rating Points Games -Crash Direct encounter Wins Black wins SB Coin 1. Ginkgo 2.18b 3324±233 2.0 3 0 0.5 1 0 2.25 0.63 2. Laser 181205 3315±255 2.0 3 0 0.5 1 0 2.25 0.21 3. Chiron S14 3315±248 2.0 3 0 0.0 1 0 1.75 0.74 4. Fizbo 2 3262±36 1.5 3 0 1.0 0 0 2.50 0.84 5. KomodoMCTS 2221.00 3279±57 1.5 3 0 1.0 0 0 2.50 0.40 6. LCZero v19.1-11248 3336±73 1.5 3 0 1.0 0 0 2.00 0.19 7. Jonny 8.1 3250±30 1.0 3 0 0.0 0 0 1.75 0.04 8. Fritz 16.10 3232±52 0.5 3 0 0.0 0 0 1.00 0.33 Gull 3 is used as offset at 3217. Difference for some values in parenthesis if any. Created using Bayesian-Elo and some local scripts. Search for 'version' for individual rating for each version. Search for 'One rating' for one rating for each progam (not useful).
Read more

TCEC Season 14, Division 1, Game 13 speculation simulation

For ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post Output from BayesElo program Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 Laser 181205 2.0 16.62 4.03 3.03 33 21 13 9 7 6 5 2 Ginkgo 2.18b 2.0 16.06 4.06 3.31 28 21 13 9 8 7 6 3 LCZero v19-TP-11248/v19.1-RC2-11248/v19.1-11248 1.5 15.28 2.55 3.41 12 22 24 18 11 7 4 4 Chiron S14 2.0 14.93 4.23 3.92 21 17 13 10 9 8 9 5 KomodoMCTS 2180.00/2210.00/2217.00/2221.00 1.5 13.36 2.43 4.78 3 9 15 19 19 16 13 6 Fizbo 2 1.5 12.95 2.33 5.10 2 6 12 17 20 19 15 7 Jonny 8.1 1.0 11.97 2.28 5.83 1 3 7 12 17 21 23 8 Fritz 16.10 0.5 10.81 2.33 6.61 0 1 3 6 10 16 25 Situation before game, simulation about most common position 100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8. 1.
Read more