TCEC Season 14, Division 1, Game 8 speculation simulation

For ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

RankPlayer namePointsEPointsStdDevERank1234567
1Chiron S141.516.384.833.313715107667
2LCZero v19-TP-11248/v19.1-RC2-11248/v19.1-112480.516.312.672.8523282012853
3KomodoMCTS 2180.00/2210.00/2217.00/2221.000.513.942.614.455121718161411
4Laser 1812051.013.934.364.51161411109912
5Fizbo 21.013.362.424.88381418191814
6Ginkgo 2.18b1.013.214.374.90131210991013
7Jonny 8.11.013.102.395.09271217191816
8Fritz 16.100.511.782.446.0213610141925

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1436.677%15.186%51.863%9.733%7.167%6.454%6.432%18.351%7.464%10.887%
2.LCZero v19.1-1124822.582%27.525%50.107%19.592%12.792%8.156%5.128% 4.225%2.991%1.234%
3.Laser 18120516.564%14.434%30.998%11.149%9.332%8.791%9.274%30.456%11.626%18.830%
4.Ginkgo 2.18b12.918%12.366%25.284%10.193%9.089%8.940%9.778%36.716%13.098%23.618%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.005.457%12.198%17.655%16.809%17.537%16.338%14.087%17.574%10.964%6.610%
6.Fizbo 22.813%8.342%11.155%13.757%17.422%18.484%17.374%21.808%13.872%7.936%
7.Jonny 8.12.113%6.824% 8.937%12.376%16.351%18.506%18.517%25.313%15.726%9.587%
8.Fritz 16.100.876%3.125% 4.001%6.391%10.310%14.331%19.410%45.557%24.259%21.298%

Speculate KomodoMCTS 2221.00 - LCZero v19.1-11248 1-0

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1438.246%14.191%52.437%8.928%7.113%6.442%6.387%18.693%7.446%11.247%
2.Laser 18120517.127%14.181%31.308%10.658%9.037%8.808%9.342%30.847%11.882%18.965%
3.LCZero v19.1-1124816.375%23.622%39.997%20.147%15.238%10.655%7.400% 6.563%4.492%2.071%
4.Ginkgo 2.18b13.168%12.341%25.509%9.832%8.760%8.721%9.896%37.282%13.266%24.016%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.008.744%16.799%25.543%19.080%17.535%14.744%11.370%11.728%7.892%3.836%
6.Fizbo 23.173%8.465%11.638%13.458%16.569%18.324%17.547%22.464%14.286%8.178%
7.Jonny 8.12.304%7.188% 9.492%11.760%15.879%18.203%18.783%25.883%16.156%9.727%
8.Fritz 16.100.863%3.213% 4.076%6.137%9.869%14.103%19.275%46.540%24.580%21.960%

Speculate KomodoMCTS 2221.00 - LCZero v19.1-11248 1/2-1/2

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1437.180%14.805%51.985%9.401%7.425%6.530%6.458%18.201%7.356%10.845%
2.LCZero v19.1-1124821.818%27.721%49.539%19.844%12.803%8.250%5.259% 4.305%3.052%1.253%
3.Laser 18120516.650%14.220%30.870%10.986%9.275%8.847%9.296%30.726%11.696%19.030%
4.Ginkgo 2.18b13.040%12.206%25.246%10.095%9.245%8.768%9.867%36.779%12.962%23.817%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.005.341%12.675%18.016%17.244%17.940%16.383%14.061%16.356%10.521%5.835%
6.Fizbo 22.932%8.410%11.342%13.713%17.126%18.454%17.310%22.055%14.031%8.024%
7.Jonny 8.12.183%6.854% 9.037%12.372%16.070%18.468%18.528%25.525%15.878%9.647%
8.Fritz 16.100.856%3.109% 3.965%6.345%10.116%14.300%19.221%46.053%24.504%21.549%

Speculate KomodoMCTS 2221.00 - LCZero v19.1-11248 0-1

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1435.757%15.736%51.493%10.053%7.692%6.342%6.344%18.076%7.253%10.823%
2.LCZero v19.1-1124827.965%30.828%58.793%19.090%10.636%5.804%3.375% 2.302%1.669%0.633%
3.Laser 18120515.637%14.309%29.946%11.750%9.626%8.824%9.293%30.561%11.817%18.744%
4.Ginkgo 2.18b12.170%12.491%24.661%10.885%9.431%8.958%9.848%36.217%12.886%23.331%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.003.020%8.913%11.933%14.628%17.165%17.800%16.343%22.131%13.627%8.504%
6.Fizbo 22.679%8.064%10.743%14.126%17.973%18.716%17.035%21.407%13.725%7.682%
7.Jonny 8.11.982%6.711% 8.693%12.863%16.938%18.854%18.065%24.587%15.321%9.266%
8.Fritz 16.100.790%2.948% 3.738%6.605%10.539%14.702%19.697%44.719%23.702%21.017%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.83h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTCNoWhiteBlack
2018-12-15 05:419LCZero v19.1-11248Fizbo 2
2018-12-15 07:3110Chiron S14KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-15 09:2111Ginkgo 2.18bJonny 8.1
2018-12-15 11:1012Laser 181205Fritz 16.10
2018-12-15 13:0013Fizbo 2Fritz 16.10
2018-12-15 14:5014Jonny 8.1Laser 181205
2018-12-15 16:3915KomodoMCTS 2221.00Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-15 18:2916LCZero v19.1-11248Chiron S14
2018-12-15 20:1917Chiron S14Fizbo 2
2018-12-15 22:0818Ginkgo 2.18bLCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-15 23:5819Laser 181205KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 01:4820Fritz 16.10Jonny 8.1
2018-12-16 03:3721Fizbo 2Jonny 8.1
2018-12-16 05:2722KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fritz 16.10
2018-12-16 07:1723LCZero v19.1-11248Laser 181205
2018-12-16 09:0624Chiron S14Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-16 10:5625Ginkgo 2.18bFizbo 2
2018-12-16 12:4526Laser 181205Chiron S14
2018-12-16 14:3527Fritz 16.10LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-16 16:2528Jonny 8.1KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 18:1429Fizbo 2KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 20:0430Jonny 8.1LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-16 21:5431Fritz 16.10Chiron S14
2018-12-16 23:4332Laser 181205Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-17 01:3333Laser 181205Fizbo 2
2018-12-17 03:2334Ginkgo 2.18bFritz 16.10
2018-12-17 05:1235Chiron S14Jonny 8.1
2018-12-17 07:0236LCZero v19.1-11248KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-17 08:5237Fizbo 2LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-17 10:4138KomodoMCTS 2221.00Chiron S14
2018-12-17 12:3139Jonny 8.1Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-17 14:2140Fritz 16.10Laser 181205
2018-12-17 16:1041Fritz 16.10Fizbo 2
2018-12-17 18:0042Laser 181205Jonny 8.1
2018-12-17 19:4943Ginkgo 2.18bKomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-17 21:3944Chiron S14LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-17 23:2945Fizbo 2Chiron S14
2018-12-18 01:1846LCZero v19.1-11248Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-18 03:0847KomodoMCTS 2221.00Laser 181205
2018-12-18 04:5848Jonny 8.1Fritz 16.10
2018-12-18 06:4749Jonny 8.1Fizbo 2
2018-12-18 08:3750Fritz 16.10KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-18 10:2751Laser 181205LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-18 12:1652Ginkgo 2.18bChiron S14
2018-12-18 14:0653Fizbo 2Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-18 15:5654Chiron S14Laser 181205
2018-12-18 17:4555LCZero v19.1-11248Fritz 16.10
2018-12-18 19:3556KomodoMCTS 2221.00Jonny 8.1
2018-12-18 21:2557KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fizbo 2
2018-12-18 23:1458LCZero v19.1-11248Jonny 8.1
2018-12-19 01:0459Chiron S14Fritz 16.10
2018-12-19 02:5360Ginkgo 2.18bLaser 181205
2018-12-19 04:4361Fizbo 2Laser 181205
2018-12-19 06:3362Fritz 16.10Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-19 08:2263Jonny 8.1Chiron S14
2018-12-19 10:1264KomodoMCTS 2221.00LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-19 12:0265LCZero v19.1-11248Fizbo 2
2018-12-19 13:5166Chiron S14KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-19 15:4167Ginkgo 2.18bJonny 8.1
2018-12-19 17:3168Laser 181205Fritz 16.10
2018-12-19 19:2069Fizbo 2Fritz 16.10
2018-12-19 21:1070Jonny 8.1Laser 181205
2018-12-19 23:0071KomodoMCTS 2221.00Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-20 00:4972LCZero v19.1-11248Chiron S14
2018-12-20 02:3973Chiron S14Fizbo 2
2018-12-20 04:2974Ginkgo 2.18bLCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-20 06:1875Laser 181205KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-20 08:0876Fritz 16.10Jonny 8.1
2018-12-20 09:5777Fizbo 2Jonny 8.1
2018-12-20 11:4778KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fritz 16.10
2018-12-20 13:3779LCZero v19.1-11248Laser 181205
2018-12-20 15:2680Chiron S14Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-20 17:1681Ginkgo 2.18bFizbo 2
2018-12-20 19:0682Laser 181205Chiron S14
2018-12-20 20:5583Fritz 16.10LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-20 22:4584Jonny 8.1KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-21 00:3585Fizbo 2KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-21 02:2486Jonny 8.1LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-21 04:1487Fritz 16.10Chiron S14
2018-12-21 06:0488Laser 181205Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-21 07:5389Laser 181205Fizbo 2
2018-12-21 09:4390Ginkgo 2.18bFritz 16.10
2018-12-21 11:3391Chiron S14Jonny 8.1
2018-12-21 13:2292LCZero v19.1-11248KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-21 15:1293Fizbo 2LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-21 17:0194KomodoMCTS 2221.00Chiron S14
2018-12-21 18:5195Jonny 8.1Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-21 20:4196Fritz 16.10Laser 181205
2018-12-21 22:3097Fritz 16.10Fizbo 2
2018-12-22 00:2098Laser 181205Jonny 8.1
2018-12-22 02:1099Ginkgo 2.18bKomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-22 03:59100Chiron S14LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-22 05:49101Fizbo 2Chiron S14
2018-12-22 07:39102LCZero v19.1-11248Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-22 09:28103KomodoMCTS 2221.00Laser 181205
2018-12-22 11:18104Jonny 8.1Fritz 16.10
2018-12-22 13:08105Jonny 8.1Fizbo 2
2018-12-22 14:57106Fritz 16.10KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-22 16:47107Laser 181205LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-22 18:37108Ginkgo 2.18bChiron S14
2018-12-22 20:26109Fizbo 2Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-22 22:16110Chiron S14Laser 181205
2018-12-23 00:05111LCZero v19.1-11248Fritz 16.10
2018-12-23 01:55112KomodoMCTS 2221.00Jonny 8.1

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