TCEC Season 14, Division 1, Game 9 speculation simulation

For ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

RankPlayer namePointsEPointsStdDevERank1234567
1Chiron S141.516.374.843.323815107667
2LCZero v19-TP-11248/v19.1-RC2-11248/v19.1-112481.016.242.622.8622282013853
3KomodoMCTS 2180.00/2210.00/2217.00/2221.001.014.022.534.395131718171410
4Laser 1812051.013.954.364.4916141199912
5Fizbo 21.013.362.424.88381417191714
6Ginkgo 2.18b1.013.204.384.89131210991013
7Jonny 8.11.013.092.395.11271216191916
8Fritz 16.100.511.762.456.0413610141925

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1436.828%14.861%51.689%9.543%7.211%6.363%6.677%18.517%7.458%11.059%
2.LCZero v19.1-1124821.907%27.271%49.178%20.047%13.183%8.323%5.184% 4.085%2.894%1.191%
3.Laser 18120516.605%14.251%30.856%10.968%9.138%8.890%9.465%30.683%11.895%18.788%
4.Ginkgo 2.18b13.213%12.436%25.649%10.232%8.922%8.771%9.650%36.776%12.915%23.861%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.005.412%12.693%18.105%17.154%18.126%16.458%13.919%16.238%10.427%5.811%
6.Fizbo 23.037%8.353%11.390%13.615%17.377%18.423%17.230%21.965%14.082%7.883%
7.Jonny 8.12.136%6.936% 9.072%12.140%16.033%18.489%18.601%25.665%16.013%9.652%
8.Fritz 16.100.862%3.199% 4.061%6.301%10.010%14.283%19.274%46.071%24.316%21.755%

Speculate LCZero v19.1-11248 - Fizbo 2 1-0

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1435.877%15.057%50.934%9.893%7.802%6.518%6.354%18.499%7.665%10.834%
2.LCZero v19.1-1124826.725%30.673%57.398%19.649%11.082%6.169%3.381% 2.321%1.678%0.643%
3.Laser 18120515.713%13.926%29.639%11.596%9.637%8.988%9.518%30.622%11.792%18.830%
4.Ginkgo 2.18b12.189%12.006%24.195%10.613%9.215%9.122%9.951%36.904%13.111%23.793%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.005.260%13.062%18.322%18.095%18.865%16.379%13.499%14.840%9.635%5.205%
6.Jonny 8.11.843%6.422% 8.265%12.571%16.683%18.928%18.495%25.058%15.645%9.413%
7.Fizbo 21.676%5.989% 7.665%11.457%16.485%19.213%19.060%26.120%16.433%9.687%
8.Fritz 16.100.717%2.865% 3.582%6.126%10.231%14.683%19.742%45.636%24.041%21.595%

Speculate LCZero v19.1-11248 - Fizbo 2 1/2-1/2

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1438.195%14.568%52.763%9.019%7.167%6.178%6.459%18.414%7.358%11.056%
2.LCZero v19.1-1124819.290%26.261%45.551%20.546%13.894%9.208%5.875% 4.926%3.404%1.522%
3.Laser 18120517.208%14.297%31.505%10.958%8.922%8.523%9.247%30.845%11.828%19.017%
4.Ginkgo 2.18b13.182%12.545%25.727%10.042%8.894%8.777%9.738%36.822%13.069%23.753%
5.KomodoMCTS 2221.005.479%12.369%17.848%16.229%17.361%16.581%14.422%17.559%11.137%6.422%
6.Fizbo 23.407%9.269%12.676%14.463%17.960%18.476%16.587%19.838%12.952%6.886%
7.Jonny 8.12.297%7.325% 9.622%12.309%15.735%18.110%18.384%25.840%16.163%9.677%
8.Fritz 16.100.942%3.366% 4.308%6.434%10.067%14.147%19.288%45.756%24.089%21.667%

Speculate LCZero v19.1-11248 - Fizbo 2 0-1

PosName1.2.1-2.3.4.5.6.7-8.7.8.
1.Chiron S1439.203%14.240%53.443%8.744%6.870%6.222%6.272%18.449%7.335%11.114%
2.Laser 18120518.212%14.646%32.858%10.241%8.786%8.414%9.368%30.333%11.570%18.763%
3.Ginkgo 2.18b13.917%12.874%26.791%9.474%8.431%8.553%9.641%37.110%13.158%23.952%
4.LCZero v19.1-1124813.809%21.607%35.416%19.605%15.686%12.225%8.665% 8.403%5.774%2.629%
5.Fizbo 25.656%13.447%19.103%17.903%18.281%16.538%13.660%14.515%9.855%4.660%
6.KomodoMCTS 2221.005.470%11.809%17.279%15.266%16.741%16.534%15.000%19.180%12.143%7.037%
7.Jonny 8.12.674%7.846%10.520%12.188%15.351%17.808%18.353%25.780%15.801%9.979%
8.Fritz 16.101.059%3.531% 4.590%6.579%9.854%13.706%19.041%46.230%24.364%21.866%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.88h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTCNoWhiteBlack
2018-12-15 08:0010Chiron S14KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-15 09:5311Ginkgo 2.18bJonny 8.1
2018-12-15 11:4612Laser 181205Fritz 16.10
2018-12-15 13:3913Fizbo 2Fritz 16.10
2018-12-15 15:3214Jonny 8.1Laser 181205
2018-12-15 17:2515KomodoMCTS 2221.00Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-15 19:1816LCZero v19.1-11248Chiron S14
2018-12-15 21:1117Chiron S14Fizbo 2
2018-12-15 23:0418Ginkgo 2.18bLCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-16 00:5719Laser 181205KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 02:4920Fritz 16.10Jonny 8.1
2018-12-16 04:4221Fizbo 2Jonny 8.1
2018-12-16 06:3522KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fritz 16.10
2018-12-16 08:2823LCZero v19.1-11248Laser 181205
2018-12-16 10:2124Chiron S14Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-16 12:1425Ginkgo 2.18bFizbo 2
2018-12-16 14:0726Laser 181205Chiron S14
2018-12-16 16:0027Fritz 16.10LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-16 17:5328Jonny 8.1KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 19:4629Fizbo 2KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-16 21:3830Jonny 8.1LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-16 23:3131Fritz 16.10Chiron S14
2018-12-17 01:2432Laser 181205Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-17 03:1733Laser 181205Fizbo 2
2018-12-17 05:1034Ginkgo 2.18bFritz 16.10
2018-12-17 07:0335Chiron S14Jonny 8.1
2018-12-17 08:5636LCZero v19.1-11248KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-17 10:4937Fizbo 2LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-17 12:4238KomodoMCTS 2221.00Chiron S14
2018-12-17 14:3539Jonny 8.1Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-17 16:2840Fritz 16.10Laser 181205
2018-12-17 18:2041Fritz 16.10Fizbo 2
2018-12-17 20:1342Laser 181205Jonny 8.1
2018-12-17 22:0643Ginkgo 2.18bKomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-17 23:5944Chiron S14LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-18 01:5245Fizbo 2Chiron S14
2018-12-18 03:4546LCZero v19.1-11248Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-18 05:3847KomodoMCTS 2221.00Laser 181205
2018-12-18 07:3148Jonny 8.1Fritz 16.10
2018-12-18 09:2449Jonny 8.1Fizbo 2
2018-12-18 11:1750Fritz 16.10KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-18 13:0951Laser 181205LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-18 15:0252Ginkgo 2.18bChiron S14
2018-12-18 16:5553Fizbo 2Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-18 18:4854Chiron S14Laser 181205
2018-12-18 20:4155LCZero v19.1-11248Fritz 16.10
2018-12-18 22:3456KomodoMCTS 2221.00Jonny 8.1
2018-12-19 00:2757KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fizbo 2
2018-12-19 02:2058LCZero v19.1-11248Jonny 8.1
2018-12-19 04:1359Chiron S14Fritz 16.10
2018-12-19 06:0660Ginkgo 2.18bLaser 181205
2018-12-19 07:5861Fizbo 2Laser 181205
2018-12-19 09:5162Fritz 16.10Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-19 11:4463Jonny 8.1Chiron S14
2018-12-19 13:3764KomodoMCTS 2221.00LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-19 15:3065LCZero v19.1-11248Fizbo 2
2018-12-19 17:2366Chiron S14KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-19 19:1667Ginkgo 2.18bJonny 8.1
2018-12-19 21:0968Laser 181205Fritz 16.10
2018-12-19 23:0269Fizbo 2Fritz 16.10
2018-12-20 00:5570Jonny 8.1Laser 181205
2018-12-20 02:4771KomodoMCTS 2221.00Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-20 04:4072LCZero v19.1-11248Chiron S14
2018-12-20 06:3373Chiron S14Fizbo 2
2018-12-20 08:2674Ginkgo 2.18bLCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-20 10:1975Laser 181205KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-20 12:1276Fritz 16.10Jonny 8.1
2018-12-20 14:0577Fizbo 2Jonny 8.1
2018-12-20 15:5878KomodoMCTS 2221.00Fritz 16.10
2018-12-20 17:5179LCZero v19.1-11248Laser 181205
2018-12-20 19:4480Chiron S14Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-20 21:3781Ginkgo 2.18bFizbo 2
2018-12-20 23:2982Laser 181205Chiron S14
2018-12-21 01:2283Fritz 16.10LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-21 03:1584Jonny 8.1KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-21 05:0885Fizbo 2KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-21 07:0186Jonny 8.1LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-21 08:5487Fritz 16.10Chiron S14
2018-12-21 10:4788Laser 181205Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-21 12:4089Laser 181205Fizbo 2
2018-12-21 14:3390Ginkgo 2.18bFritz 16.10
2018-12-21 16:2691Chiron S14Jonny 8.1
2018-12-21 18:1892LCZero v19.1-11248KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-21 20:1193Fizbo 2LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-21 22:0494KomodoMCTS 2221.00Chiron S14
2018-12-21 23:5795Jonny 8.1Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-22 01:5096Fritz 16.10Laser 181205
2018-12-22 03:4397Fritz 16.10Fizbo 2
2018-12-22 05:3698Laser 181205Jonny 8.1
2018-12-22 07:2999Ginkgo 2.18bKomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-22 09:22100Chiron S14LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-22 11:15101Fizbo 2Chiron S14
2018-12-22 13:07102LCZero v19.1-11248Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-22 15:00103KomodoMCTS 2221.00Laser 181205
2018-12-22 16:53104Jonny 8.1Fritz 16.10
2018-12-22 18:46105Jonny 8.1Fizbo 2
2018-12-22 20:39106Fritz 16.10KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-22 22:32107Laser 181205LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-23 00:25108Ginkgo 2.18bChiron S14
2018-12-23 02:18109Fizbo 2Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-23 04:11110Chiron S14Laser 181205
2018-12-23 06:04111LCZero v19.1-11248Fritz 16.10
2018-12-23 07:56112KomodoMCTS 2221.00Jonny 8.1

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