TCEC Season 14, Division 2, Game 111 speculation simulation

For ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

Rank	Player name	Points	EPoints	StdDev	ERank
1	LCZero v19-TP-11248/v19.1-RC2-11248	19.5	20.23	0.38	1.00
2	KomodoMCTS 2180.00/2210.00/2217.00	16.0	16.72	0.38	2.00
3	Xiphos 0.4.14	16.0	16.00	0.00	3.00
4	Booot 6.3.1	14.0	14.00	0.00	4.00
5	Nirvana 2.4	13.0	13.00	0.00	5.00
6	ChessBrainVB 3.72	12.0	12.00	0.00	6.00
7	Gull 180521	11.0	11.27	0.38	7.00
8	Texel 1.08a13	8.5	8.78	0.38	8.00

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos	Name		1.	2.		1-2.		3.	4.	5.	6.		7-8.		7.	8.
1.	LCZero v19.1-RC2-11248		100.000%			100.000%
2.	KomodoMCTS 2217.00			83.134%		83.134%		16.866%
3.	Xiphos 0.4.14			16.866%		16.866%		83.134%
4.	Booot 6.3.1								100.000%
5.	Nirvana 2.4									100.000%
6.	ChessBrainVB 3.72										83.698%		16.302%		16.302%
7.	Gull 180521										16.302%		83.698%		83.698%
8.	Texel 1.08a13												100.000%			100.000%

Speculate LCZero v19.1-RC2-11248 - Gull 180521 1-0

Pos	Name		1.	2.		1-2.		3.	4.	5.	6.		7-8.		7.	8.
1.	LCZero v19.1-RC2-11248		100.000%			100.000%
2.	KomodoMCTS 2217.00			83.190%		83.190%		16.810%
3.	Xiphos 0.4.14			16.810%		16.810%		83.190%
4.	Booot 6.3.1								100.000%
5.	Nirvana 2.4									100.000%
6.	ChessBrainVB 3.72										100.000%
7.	Gull 180521												100.000%		100.000%
8.	Texel 1.08a13												100.000%			100.000%

Speculate LCZero v19.1-RC2-11248 - Gull 180521 1/2-1/2

Pos	Name		1.	2.		1-2.		3.	4.	5.	6.		7-8.		7.	8.
1.	LCZero v19.1-RC2-11248		100.000%			100.000%
2.	KomodoMCTS 2217.00			82.813%		82.813%		17.187%
3.	Xiphos 0.4.14			17.187%		17.187%		82.813%
4.	Booot 6.3.1								100.000%
5.	Nirvana 2.4									100.000%
6.	ChessBrainVB 3.72										100.000%
7.	Gull 180521												100.000%		100.000%
8.	Texel 1.08a13												100.000%			100.000%

Speculate LCZero v19.1-RC2-11248 - Gull 180521 0-1

Pos	Name		1.	2.		1-2.		3.	4.	5.	6.		7-8.		7.	8.
1.	LCZero v19.1-RC2-11248		100.000%			100.000%
2.	KomodoMCTS 2217.00			83.044%		83.044%		16.956%
3.	Xiphos 0.4.14			16.956%		16.956%		83.044%
4.	Booot 6.3.1								100.000%
5.	Nirvana 2.4									100.000%
6.	Gull 180521										100.000%
7.	ChessBrainVB 3.72												100.000%		100.000%
8.	Texel 1.08a13												100.000%			100.000%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.26h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC	No	White	Black
2018-12-14 13:04	112	KomodoMCTS 2217.00	Texel 1.08a13