TCEC Season 13, Division 3, Game 60 speculation simulation
For ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Output from BayesElo program
| Rank | Player name | Points | EPoints | StdDev | ERank | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethereal 10.81 | 12.0 | 21.19 | 1.70 | 1.03 | 98 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Arasan TCEC13 | 8.5 | 15.39 | 1.81 | 3.23 | 1 | 38 | 24 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 2 |
| 3 | Pedone 1.8 | 8.0 | 14.81 | 1.72 | 3.66 | 1 | 24 | 26 | 22 | 15 | 9 | 3 |
| 4 | DeusX 1.0 | 8.0 | 14.75 | 1.67 | 3.71 | 0 | 23 | 26 | 23 | 16 | 9 | 3 |
| 5 | lc0 16.10161/16.10520 | 7.0 | 13.52 | 1.66 | 4.74 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 20 | 26 | 22 | 10 |
| 6 | Nemorino 5.01 | 6.5 | 12.50 | 1.85 | 5.56 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 28 | 27 |
| 7 | Hannibal 20180806 | 6.0 | 11.60 | 1.83 | 6.21 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 24 | 45 |
| 8 | Bobcat 8 | 3.0 | 8.22 | 1.59 | 7.85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Ethereal 10.81 | 96.858% | 2.657% | 99.515% | 0.388% | 0.083% | 0.010% | 0.004% | ||||||||
| 2. | Arasan TCEC13 | 1.680% | 37.144% | 38.824% | 23.833% | 17.215% | 11.623% | 6.140% | 2.365% | 2.241% | 0.124% | |||||
| 3. | Pedone 1.8 | 0.924% | 24.014% | 24.938% | 25.528% | 21.765% | 15.632% | 8.795% | 3.342% | 3.171% | 0.171% | |||||
| 4. | DeusX 1.0 | 0.350% | 23.432% | 23.782% | 25.185% | 22.204% | 15.762% | 9.224% | 3.843% | 3.640% | 0.203% | |||||
| 5. | lc0 16.10520 | 0.131% | 8.065% | 8.196% | 14.609% | 20.365% | 25.318% | 20.548% | 10.964% | 10.096% | 0.868% | |||||
| 6. | Nemorino 5.01 | 0.036% | 2.927% | 2.963% | 6.488% | 10.965% | 17.778% | 27.801% | 34.005% | 28.935% | 5.070% | |||||
| 7. | Hannibal 20180806 | 0.021% | 1.755% | 1.776% | 3.947% | 7.306% | 13.369% | 24.981% | 48.621% | 40.444% | 8.177% | |||||
| 8. | Bobcat 8 | 0.006% | 0.006% | 0.022% | 0.097% | 0.508% | 2.507% | 96.860% | 11.473% | 85.387% |
Speculate Pedone 1.8 - Bobcat 8 1-0
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Ethereal 10.81 | 96.609% | 2.866% | 99.475% | 0.419% | 0.083% | 0.019% | 0.004% | ||||||||
| 2. | Arasan TCEC13 | 1.699% | 34.630% | 36.329% | 24.447% | 18.220% | 12.123% | 6.480% | 2.401% | 2.316% | 0.085% | |||||
| 3. | Pedone 1.8 | 1.176% | 29.848% | 31.024% | 27.306% | 20.652% | 12.876% | 6.330% | 1.812% | 1.801% | 0.011% | |||||
| 4. | DeusX 1.0 | 0.349% | 21.159% | 21.508% | 24.756% | 23.268% | 16.936% | 9.703% | 3.829% | 3.724% | 0.105% | |||||
| 5. | lc0 16.10520 | 0.128% | 7.346% | 7.474% | 13.391% | 20.189% | 26.280% | 21.590% | 11.076% | 10.481% | 0.595% | |||||
| 6. | Nemorino 5.01 | 0.030% | 2.610% | 2.640% | 6.092% | 10.415% | 17.978% | 28.756% | 34.119% | 30.503% | 3.616% | |||||
| 7. | Hannibal 20180806 | 0.009% | 1.541% | 1.550% | 3.586% | 7.142% | 13.553% | 25.805% | 48.364% | 42.483% | 5.881% | |||||
| 8. | Bobcat 8 | 0.003% | 0.031% | 0.235% | 1.332% | 98.399% | 8.692% | 89.707% |
Speculate Pedone 1.8 - Bobcat 8 1/2-1/2
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Ethereal 10.81 | 97.202% | 2.346% | 99.548% | 0.363% | 0.070% | 0.016% | 0.003% | ||||||||
| 2. | Arasan TCEC13 | 1.639% | 38.276% | 39.915% | 23.613% | 16.691% | 11.174% | 6.133% | 2.474% | 2.306% | 0.168% | |||||
| 3. | Pedone 1.8 | 0.592% | 21.395% | 21.987% | 24.861% | 22.905% | 17.102% | 9.630% | 3.515% | 3.389% | 0.126% | |||||
| 4. | DeusX 1.0 | 0.376% | 24.675% | 25.051% | 25.519% | 21.347% | 15.288% | 9.041% | 3.754% | 3.542% | 0.212% | |||||
| 5. | lc0 16.10520 | 0.138% | 8.456% | 8.594% | 14.636% | 20.331% | 24.880% | 20.239% | 11.320% | 10.298% | 1.022% | |||||
| 6. | Nemorino 5.01 | 0.034% | 3.003% | 3.037% | 6.902% | 11.190% | 17.595% | 27.340% | 33.936% | 28.347% | 5.589% | |||||
| 7. | Hannibal 20180806 | 0.019% | 1.846% | 1.865% | 4.096% | 7.377% | 13.375% | 24.959% | 48.328% | 39.519% | 8.809% | |||||
| 8. | Bobcat 8 | 0.003% | 0.003% | 0.010% | 0.089% | 0.570% | 2.655% | 96.673% | 12.599% | 84.074% |
Speculate Pedone 1.8 - Bobcat 8 0-1
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Ethereal 10.81 | 97.277% | 2.324% | 99.601% | 0.303% | 0.079% | 0.014% | 0.002% | 0.001% | 0.001% | ||||||
| 2. | Arasan TCEC13 | 1.740% | 40.474% | 42.214% | 23.680% | 15.575% | 10.290% | 5.730% | 2.511% | 2.249% | 0.262% | |||||
| 3. | DeusX 1.0 | 0.414% | 26.571% | 26.985% | 26.635% | 20.271% | 14.228% | 8.322% | 3.559% | 3.214% | 0.345% | |||||
| 4. | Pedone 1.8 | 0.341% | 15.550% | 15.891% | 21.422% | 23.240% | 19.777% | 13.208% | 6.462% | 5.876% | 0.586% | |||||
| 5. | lc0 16.10520 | 0.170% | 9.459% | 9.629% | 15.974% | 21.038% | 23.600% | 18.829% | 10.930% | 9.429% | 1.501% | |||||
| 6. | Nemorino 5.01 | 0.037% | 3.493% | 3.530% | 7.368% | 11.578% | 17.433% | 25.625% | 34.466% | 26.278% | 8.188% | |||||
| 7. | Hannibal 20180806 | 0.021% | 2.119% | 2.140% | 4.552% | 7.912% | 13.406% | 23.766% | 48.224% | 36.106% | 12.118% | |||||
| 8. | Bobcat 8 | 0.010% | 0.010% | 0.066% | 0.307% | 1.252% | 4.518% | 93.847% | 16.847% | 77.000% |
Manually selected ratings: Added 170 to LCZero, 220 to Ethereal and 50 to DeusX
| Rank | Name | Elo | + | - | games | score | oppo. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | Ethereal 10.81 | 3373 | 75 | 75 | 56 | 70% | 3010 |
| 60 | lc0 16.10520 | 3357 | 103 | 103 | 28 | 71% | 3058 |
| 66 | DeusX 1.0 | 3210 | 103 | 103 | 28 | 66% | 3062 |
| 72 | Hannibal 20180806 | 3168 | 39 | 39 | 199 | 44% | 3202 |
| 77 | Pedone 1.8 | 3145 | 96 | 96 | 28 | 57% | 3108 |
| 92 | Arasan TCEC13 | 3115 | 100 | 100 | 28 | 39% | 3176 |
| 94 | Bobcat 8 | 3106 | 44 | 44 | 171 | 40% | 3176 |
| 104 | Nemorino 5.01 | 3083 | 99 | 99 | 28 | 45% | 3117 |
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Ethereal 10.81 | 98.593% | 1.304% | 99.897% | 0.098% | 0.005% | ||||||||||
| 2. | lc0 16.10520 | 1.073% | 57.224% | 58.297% | 25.633% | 10.661% | 4.019% | 1.166% | 0.224% | 0.206% | 0.018% | |||||
| 3. | DeusX 1.0 | 0.171% | 23.981% | 24.152% | 32.890% | 22.270% | 12.691% | 6.090% | 1.907% | 1.786% | 0.121% | |||||
| 4. | Pedone 1.8 | 0.117% | 10.828% | 10.945% | 21.628% | 28.377% | 21.665% | 12.327% | 5.058% | 4.612% | 0.446% | |||||
| 5. | Arasan TCEC13 | 0.046% | 5.561% | 5.607% | 13.948% | 23.034% | 28.119% | 20.981% | 8.311% | 7.533% | 0.778% | |||||
| 6. | Hannibal 20180806 | 0.885% | 0.885% | 4.684% | 12.038% | 23.915% | 35.430% | 23.048% | 20.227% | 2.821% | ||||||
| 7. | Nemorino 5.01 | 0.216% | 0.216% | 1.096% | 3.463% | 8.886% | 20.921% | 65.418% | 50.759% | 14.659% | ||||||
| 8. | Bobcat 8 | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.023% | 0.152% | 0.705% | 3.085% | 96.034% | 14.877% | 81.157% |
Speculate Pedone 1.8 - Bobcat 8 1-0
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Ethereal 10.81 | 98.618% | 1.271% | 99.889% | 0.099% | 0.011% | 0.001% | |||||||||
| 2. | lc0 16.10520 | 1.030% | 55.848% | 56.878% | 25.856% | 11.436% | 4.328% | 1.254% | 0.248% | 0.239% | 0.009% | |||||
| 3. | Pedone 1.8 | 0.160% | 13.592% | 13.752% | 25.026% | 29.225% | 19.926% | 9.474% | 2.597% | 2.556% | 0.041% | |||||
| 4. | DeusX 1.0 | 0.154% | 23.077% | 23.231% | 30.730% | 23.802% | 13.904% | 6.444% | 1.889% | 1.806% | 0.083% | |||||
| 5. | Arasan TCEC13 | 0.038% | 5.223% | 5.261% | 13.229% | 21.498% | 29.349% | 22.419% | 8.244% | 7.695% | 0.549% | |||||
| 6. | Hannibal 20180806 | 0.824% | 0.824% | 4.091% | 11.049% | 23.946% | 37.557% | 22.533% | 20.674% | 1.859% | ||||||
| 7. | Nemorino 5.01 | 0.165% | 0.165% | 0.968% | 2.951% | 8.307% | 21.083% | 66.526% | 55.517% | 11.009% | ||||||
| 8. | Bobcat 8 | 0.001% | 0.028% | 0.239% | 1.769% | 97.963% | 11.513% | 86.450% |
Speculate Pedone 1.8 - Bobcat 8 1/2-1/2
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Ethereal 10.81 | 98.756% | 1.165% | 99.921% | 0.075% | 0.004% | ||||||||||
| 2. | lc0 16.10520 | 0.977% | 58.238% | 59.215% | 25.494% | 10.217% | 3.712% | 1.126% | 0.236% | 0.223% | 0.013% | |||||
| 3. | DeusX 1.0 | 0.153% | 24.462% | 24.615% | 33.344% | 21.880% | 12.410% | 5.975% | 1.776% | 1.655% | 0.121% | |||||
| 4. | Pedone 1.8 | 0.082% | 9.407% | 9.489% | 21.003% | 28.843% | 22.952% | 12.959% | 4.754% | 4.446% | 0.308% | |||||
| 5. | Arasan TCEC13 | 0.030% | 5.574% | 5.604% | 14.157% | 23.210% | 27.921% | 20.633% | 8.475% | 7.669% | 0.806% | |||||
| 6. | Hannibal 20180806 | 0.002% | 0.950% | 0.952% | 4.883% | 12.283% | 23.455% | 35.544% | 22.883% | 20.068% | 2.815% | |||||
| 7. | Nemorino 5.01 | 0.201% | 0.201% | 1.031% | 3.468% | 8.915% | 20.736% | 65.649% | 50.267% | 15.382% | ||||||
| 8. | Bobcat 8 | 0.003% | 0.003% | 0.013% | 0.095% | 0.635% | 3.027% | 96.227% | 15.672% | 80.555% |
Speculate Pedone 1.8 - Bobcat 8 0-1
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Ethereal 10.81 | 98.744% | 1.194% | 99.938% | 0.059% | 0.003% | ||||||||||
| 2. | lc0 16.10520 | 1.010% | 59.920% | 60.930% | 25.003% | 9.392% | 3.419% | 1.018% | 0.238% | 0.217% | 0.021% | |||||
| 3. | DeusX 1.0 | 0.176% | 25.148% | 25.324% | 35.336% | 20.435% | 11.527% | 5.473% | 1.905% | 1.691% | 0.214% | |||||
| 4. | Pedone 1.8 | 0.038% | 6.636% | 6.674% | 17.461% | 27.106% | 24.538% | 16.134% | 8.087% | 6.978% | 1.109% | |||||
| 5. | Arasan TCEC13 | 0.032% | 5.883% | 5.915% | 15.405% | 24.984% | 25.741% | 19.390% | 8.565% | 7.377% | 1.188% | |||||
| 6. | Hannibal 20180806 | 1.007% | 1.007% | 5.478% | 13.751% | 23.909% | 32.596% | 23.259% | 19.147% | 4.112% | ||||||
| 7. | Nemorino 5.01 | 0.209% | 0.209% | 1.215% | 4.038% | 9.461% | 20.263% | 64.814% | 44.446% | 20.368% | ||||||
| 8. | Bobcat 8 | 0.003% | 0.003% | 0.043% | 0.291% | 1.405% | 5.126% | 93.132% | 20.144% | 72.988% |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.23h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.| UTC | No | White | Black |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-08-14 18:46 | 60 | Pedone 1.8 | Bobcat 8 |
| 2018-08-14 20:00 | 61 | lc0 16.10520 | Bobcat 8 |
| 2018-08-14 21:14 | 62 | Nemorino 5.01 | Pedone 1.8 |
| 2018-08-14 22:28 | 63 | DeusX 1.0 | Arasan TCEC13 |
| 2018-08-14 23:42 | 64 | Hannibal 20180806 | Ethereal 10.81 |
| 2018-08-15 00:55 | 65 | Ethereal 10.81 | lc0 16.10520 |
| 2018-08-15 02:09 | 66 | Arasan TCEC13 | Hannibal 20180806 |
| 2018-08-15 03:23 | 67 | Pedone 1.8 | DeusX 1.0 |
| 2018-08-15 04:37 | 68 | Bobcat 8 | Nemorino 5.01 |
| 2018-08-15 05:50 | 69 | lc0 16.10520 | Nemorino 5.01 |
| 2018-08-15 07:04 | 70 | DeusX 1.0 | Bobcat 8 |
| 2018-08-15 08:18 | 71 | Hannibal 20180806 | Pedone 1.8 |
| 2018-08-15 09:32 | 72 | Ethereal 10.81 | Arasan TCEC13 |
| 2018-08-15 10:45 | 73 | Arasan TCEC13 | lc0 16.10520 |
| 2018-08-15 11:59 | 74 | Pedone 1.8 | Ethereal 10.81 |
| 2018-08-15 13:13 | 75 | Bobcat 8 | Hannibal 20180806 |
| 2018-08-15 14:27 | 76 | Nemorino 5.01 | DeusX 1.0 |
| 2018-08-15 15:41 | 77 | lc0 16.10520 | DeusX 1.0 |
| 2018-08-15 16:54 | 78 | Hannibal 20180806 | Nemorino 5.01 |
| 2018-08-15 18:08 | 79 | Ethereal 10.81 | Bobcat 8 |
| 2018-08-15 19:22 | 80 | Arasan TCEC13 | Pedone 1.8 |
| 2018-08-15 20:36 | 81 | Pedone 1.8 | lc0 16.10520 |
| 2018-08-15 21:49 | 82 | Bobcat 8 | Arasan TCEC13 |
| 2018-08-15 23:03 | 83 | Nemorino 5.01 | Ethereal 10.81 |
| 2018-08-16 00:17 | 84 | DeusX 1.0 | Hannibal 20180806 |
| 2018-08-16 01:31 | 85 | lc0 16.10520 | Hannibal 20180806 |
| 2018-08-16 02:44 | 86 | DeusX 1.0 | Ethereal 10.81 |
| 2018-08-16 03:58 | 87 | Nemorino 5.01 | Arasan TCEC13 |
| 2018-08-16 05:12 | 88 | Bobcat 8 | Pedone 1.8 |
| 2018-08-16 06:26 | 89 | Bobcat 8 | lc0 16.10520 |
| 2018-08-16 07:40 | 90 | Pedone 1.8 | Nemorino 5.01 |
| 2018-08-16 08:53 | 91 | Arasan TCEC13 | DeusX 1.0 |
| 2018-08-16 10:07 | 92 | Ethereal 10.81 | Hannibal 20180806 |
| 2018-08-16 11:21 | 93 | lc0 16.10520 | Ethereal 10.81 |
| 2018-08-16 12:35 | 94 | Hannibal 20180806 | Arasan TCEC13 |
| 2018-08-16 13:48 | 95 | DeusX 1.0 | Pedone 1.8 |
| 2018-08-16 15:02 | 96 | Nemorino 5.01 | Bobcat 8 |
| 2018-08-16 16:16 | 97 | Nemorino 5.01 | lc0 16.10520 |
| 2018-08-16 17:30 | 98 | Bobcat 8 | DeusX 1.0 |
| 2018-08-16 18:43 | 99 | Pedone 1.8 | Hannibal 20180806 |
| 2018-08-16 19:57 | 100 | Arasan TCEC13 | Ethereal 10.81 |
| 2018-08-16 21:11 | 101 | lc0 16.10520 | Arasan TCEC13 |
| 2018-08-16 22:25 | 102 | Ethereal 10.81 | Pedone 1.8 |
| 2018-08-16 23:39 | 103 | Hannibal 20180806 | Bobcat 8 |
| 2018-08-17 00:52 | 104 | DeusX 1.0 | Nemorino 5.01 |
| 2018-08-17 02:06 | 105 | DeusX 1.0 | lc0 16.10520 |
| 2018-08-17 03:20 | 106 | Nemorino 5.01 | Hannibal 20180806 |
| 2018-08-17 04:34 | 107 | Bobcat 8 | Ethereal 10.81 |
| 2018-08-17 05:47 | 108 | Pedone 1.8 | Arasan TCEC13 |
| 2018-08-17 07:01 | 109 | lc0 16.10520 | Pedone 1.8 |
| 2018-08-17 08:15 | 110 | Arasan TCEC13 | Bobcat 8 |
| 2018-08-17 09:29 | 111 | Ethereal 10.81 | Nemorino 5.01 |
| 2018-08-17 10:42 | 112 | Hannibal 20180806 | DeusX 1.0 |
Have you considered changing your manual ratings. Take the 170 away from Leela?
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